As of October 24, 2026, 08:14 PM ET, Polymarket traders price March 31, 2027 at 50.0% in Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...? — $17.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, March 31, 2027, is priced at 50.0%.
Since October 15, 2026, March 31, 2027 has traded between 50.0% and 50.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 50.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 50.0% |
March 31, 2027 is favored at 50.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31, 2027 | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| December 31, 2026 | 5¢ | 4.8% | — | $17.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 96¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$17.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date. A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”. The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies. Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Resolution source: https://climateclock.world
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 06:15 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.3% | $0 |
| Oct 13, 08:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.2% | $1 |
| Oct 12, 10:40 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $2 |
| Oct 12, 08:03 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $1 |
| Oct 12, 05:00 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $19 |
| Oct 12, 05:00 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $3 |
| Oct 12, 05:00 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $19 |
| Oct 12, 05:00 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $57 |
| Oct 12, 05:00 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $5 |
| Oct 11, 10:13 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is March 31, 2027 at 50.0%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 4.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-climate-clocks-1pt5c-deadline-change-byptptpt?via=bro
$17.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://climateclock.world.
March 31, 2027, priced at 50.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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