Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:14 PM ET, Polymarket traders price March 31, 2027 at 50.0% in Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...? — $17.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
March 31, 2027
50%
A 50.0% price implies roughly a 50-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
March 31, 202750.0%
December 31, 20264.8%
Bid
2¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
96¢
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Range since October 15, 2026: 50.0% – 50.0% · Opened at 50.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
Category
Weather, climate, Climate Change, Climate & Science
Scheduled end
March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$17.7K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$484
Markets
2
Leading outcome
March 31, 2027 — 50.0%
Resolution source
https://climateclock.world

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, March 31, 2027, is priced at 50.0%.

Since October 15, 2026, March 31, 2027 has traded between 50.0% and 50.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 50.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202650.0%
Oct 16, 202650.0%
Oct 18, 202650.0%
Oct 19, 202650.0%
Oct 20, 202650.0%
Oct 24, 202650.0%
Oct 24, 202650.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

March 31, 2027 is favored at 50.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
March 31, 202750¢50.0%—$00.0%
December 31, 20265¢4.8%—$17.7K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 96¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$17.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date. A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”. The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies. Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.

Resolution source: https://climateclock.world

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $138 at 92.0%BUY No — $93 at 93.0%BUY No — $57 at 95.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 06:15 AM ETNoSELL91.3%$0
Oct 13, 08:00 PM ETYesBUY2.2%$1
Oct 12, 10:40 AM ETYesSELL4.0%$2
Oct 12, 08:03 AM ETYesSELL4.0%$1
Oct 12, 05:00 AM ETNoBUY96.0%$19
Oct 12, 05:00 AM ETYesSELL5.0%$3
Oct 12, 05:00 AM ETNoBUY95.0%$19
Oct 12, 05:00 AM ETNoBUY95.0%$57
Oct 12, 05:00 AM ETYesSELL5.0%$5
Oct 11, 10:13 AM ETYesBUY6.0%$2

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is March 31, 2027 at 50.0%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 4.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-climate-clocks-1pt5c-deadline-change-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...??

$17.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://climateclock.world.

What is the most likely outcome of Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

March 31, 2027, priced at 50.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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