Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will the Knesset pass the "Defendant Law" by January 31, 2027?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 56.0% in Will the Knesset pass the "Defendant Law" by January 31, 2027? — $259 traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $36.
Leading outcome
No
56%
A 56.0% price implies roughly a 56-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +13.0 pts
No56.0%
Yes44.0%
Bid
17¢
Ask
71¢
Spread
54¢
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Range since October 19, 2026: 50.5% – 55.5% · Opened at 50.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will the Knesset pass the "Defendant Law" by January 31, 2027?
Category
Israel, Politics, netanyahu
Scheduled end
January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$259
Volume (24h)
$36
Liquidity
$31
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 56.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 56.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +13.0 pts.

Since October 19, 2026, No has traded between 50.5% and 55.5%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 55.5%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 56.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No56¢56.0%-13.0 pts$259100.0%
Yes44¢44.0%+13.0 pts$259100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 54¢ (bid 17¢ / ask 71¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$259 has been traded on this event in total, $36 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset passes, in its third reading, a law prohibiting an individual who has been indicted for a criminal offense from being tasked with forming a government or from serving as Prime Minister (commonly referred to as the "Defendant Law") between market creation and January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any law containing this prohibition will qualify, regardless of its title, bill number, whether it amends a Basic Law or another law, or whether it results from a replacement bill, a split bill, or a broader legislative package. The specific offenses covered and any other provisions will not affect resolution, provided this prohibition is included in the passed law. A law that does not contain this prohibition will not qualify. Passage in the third reading in the Knesset plenum is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. Publication in the official gazette (Reshumot), the law's entry into force, and the outcome of any court challenge are not required and will have no bearing on this market. Approval in a preliminary, first, or second reading, or committee decisions, will not qualify unless the law is subsequently passed in its third reading within this market's timeframe. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 53 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueNo53$29
Direct-ChainstayYes22$10
Unkempt-Therapist-MosquitoYes21$9
Muted-AccuracyYes20$9
Skeletal-LiverNo16$9
0x28a66540…Yes5$2

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $40 at 48.0%BUY No — $21 at 53.5%BUY Yes — $13 at 36.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 02:36 PM ETYesBUY36.0%$13
Oct 23, 04:44 PM ETYesSELL17.2%$3
Oct 23, 12:27 AM ETNoBUY55.0%$11
Oct 22, 02:31 PM ETNoBUY53.5%$21
Oct 22, 02:31 PM ETNoBUY49.0%$10
Oct 22, 02:31 PM ETNoBUY48.0%$40
Oct 20, 04:13 PM ETNoBUY51.0%$11
Oct 20, 11:30 AM ETYesBUY35.0%$7

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will the Knesset pass the "Defendant Law" by January 31, 2027??

As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 56.0%. Next is Yes at 44.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-knesset-pass-the-defendant-law-by-january-31-2027-20261019143631755?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will the Knesset pass the "Defendant Law" by January 31, 2027??

$259 in total volume, with $36 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will the Knesset pass the "Defendant Law" by January 31, 2027? end?

The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will the Knesset pass the "Defendant Law" by January 31, 2027?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 56.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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