As of October 24, 2026, 07:47 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.0% in Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? — $294.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -2.0 pts; past month: -1.0 pts.
Since January 04, 2026, No has traded between 70.5% and 95.5%. It opened at 76.5% and last traded at 94.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.0% |
No is favored at 94.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 94¢ | 94.0% | — | $294.6K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 6¢ | 6.0% | — | $294.6K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 7¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$294.6K has been traded on this event in total, $15 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 9,612 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 9,612 | $577 |
| Fearful-Independence | No | 9,399 | $8.8K |
| Warmhearted-Drummer | Yes | 6,691 | $401 |
| Real-Advertisement | No | 3,170 | $3.0K |
| Uniform-Botany | Yes | 2,995 | $180 |
| Whispered-Herb | Yes | 2,670 | $160 |
| Torn-Skirt | No | 1,981 | $1.9K |
| Wrong-Heater | No | 1,980 | $1.9K |
| Happy-Dinosaur | No | 1,684 | $1.6K |
| Prickly-Signup | No | 1,654 | $1.6K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:24 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.4% | $14 |
| Oct 23, 02:22 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $79 |
| Oct 23, 02:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $79 |
| Oct 21, 06:44 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $5 |
| Oct 20, 09:19 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 08:41 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.4% | $6 |
| Oct 20, 08:09 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $179 |
| Oct 19, 05:04 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.2% | $1.0K |
| Oct 18, 07:23 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $52 |
| Oct 18, 07:19 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.0%. Next is Yes at 6.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-a-latin-american-country-in-2026?via=bro
$294.6K in total volume, with $15 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 94.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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