As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.5% in Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? — $3.65M traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: -1.0 pts.
Since January 04, 2026, No has traded between 71.5% and 95.5%. It opened at 88.5% and last traded at 94.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 94.5% |
No is favored at 94.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 94¢ | 94.5% | +1.0 pts | $3.65M | 100.0% |
| Yes | 6¢ | 5.5% | -1.0 pts | $3.65M | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.65M has been traded on this event in total, $10.8K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 86,751 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorable-Motion | Yes | 86,751 | $4.8K |
| Attached-Example-Anesthesiologist | No | 57,859 | $54.7K |
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 57,747 | $3.2K |
| Sociable-Rooster | Yes | 28,947 | $1.6K |
| Glamorous-Stitcher | No | 27,158 | $25.7K |
| Slippery-Filly | No | 26,000 | $24.6K |
| Keen-Cappuccino | No | 22,390 | $21.2K |
| Fatal-Destination | Yes | 21,000 | $1.2K |
| Overcooked-Ziggurat | Yes | 18,354 | $1.0K |
| Free-Gnat | No | 17,457 | $16.5K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:13 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 05:05 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 05:03 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $50 |
| Oct 24, 03:39 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.4% | $300 |
| Oct 24, 03:10 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 12:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $3.8K |
| Oct 24, 10:10 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 06:14 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 06:13 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $795 |
| Oct 24, 02:50 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $100 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.5%. Next is Yes at 5.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026?via=bro
$3.65M in total volume, with $10.8K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 94.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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