As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 97.3% in Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? — $1.45M traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 97.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.1 pts; past month: +0.1 pts.
Since January 05, 2026, No has traded between 88.5% and 97.5%. It opened at 94.5% and last traded at 97.3%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.4% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 97.3% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.3% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.3% |
No is favored at 97.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 97¢ | 97.3% | — | $1.45M | 100.0% |
| Yes | 3¢ | 2.7% | — | $1.45M | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 3¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.45M has been traded on this event in total, $80 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 27,965 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unfortunate-Pray | No | 27,965 | $27.2K |
| Positive-Steam | No | 27,556 | $26.8K |
| Dependable-Propane | Yes | 23,350 | $630 |
| Compassionate-Kneejerk | No | 21,338 | $20.8K |
| Neat-Meatball | Yes | 16,520 | $446 |
| Sociable-Rooster | Yes | 12,207 | $330 |
| Jumbo-Dividend | Yes | 10,815 | $292 |
| 0x8931aa50… | No | 7,962 | $7.7K |
| Busy-Prince | Yes | 5,767 | $156 |
| jsmp1 | No | 5,216 | $5.1K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:41 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.8% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.8% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 01:00 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.6% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 05:39 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.6% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 10:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.4% | $10 |
| Oct 22, 10:14 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.2% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 08:25 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.2% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 06:53 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.3% | $138 |
| Oct 22, 06:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.4% | $139 |
| Oct 22, 06:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.3% | $272 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 97.3%. Next is Yes at 2.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-greenland-in-2026?via=bro
$1.45M in total volume, with $80 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 97.3% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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