As of October 24, 2026, 07:47 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.4% in Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? — $263.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: -0.4 pts; past month: +0.4 pts.
Since January 05, 2026, No has traded between 90.5% and 99.2%. It opened at 94.0% and last traded at 98.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 98.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 98.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.9% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.2% |
No is favored at 98.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 98.4% | +0.1 pts | $263.0K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 1.6% | -0.1 pts | $263.0K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$263.0K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,097 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sleepy-Council | No | 8,097 | $8.0K |
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 3,146 | $50 |
| Past-Disguise | Yes | 2,527 | $40 |
| Smallpeepee | No | 2,406 | $2.4K |
| Compassionate-Kneejerk | No | 2,400 | $2.4K |
| Questionable-Puma | Yes | 2,326 | $37 |
| Happy-Dinosaur | No | 1,686 | $1.7K |
| Weekly-Lot | Yes | 1,214 | $19 |
| Prize-Intelligence | Yes | 1,094 | $17 |
| Shadowy-Eve | No | 921 | $906 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 09:14 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.4% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 07:05 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.0% | $98 |
| Oct 21, 06:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $23 |
| Oct 21, 02:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.0% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 02:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.0% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 02:50 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 08:08 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.7% | $20 |
| Oct 20, 03:19 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.8% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 03:13 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $3.9K |
| Oct 20, 03:13 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $1.5K |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.4%. Next is Yes at 1.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-mexico-in-2026?via=bro
$263.0K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 98.4% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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