As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 3.2% in Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? — $14.23M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 3.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.2 pts; past month: +0.1 pts.
Since January 04, 2026, December 31 has traded between 2.5% and 24.5%. It opened at 24.5% and last traded at 3.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 3.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 3.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 3.6% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 3.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 3.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 3.2% |
December 31 is favored at 3.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 3¢ | 3.2% | — | $274.1K | 1.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$14.23M has been traded on this event in total, $121 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 25,516 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prickly-Signup | No | 25,516 | $24.7K |
| Hearty-Productivity | Yes | 11,570 | $376 |
| Sad-Catalysis | Yes | 10,000 | $325 |
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 6,904 | $224 |
| Sophisticated-Farmer-Watercress | No | 4,413 | $4.3K |
| Hefty-Sunshine | Yes | 4,240 | $138 |
| Flashy-Label | No | 2,000 | $1.9K |
| Wobbly-Chain | No | 1,000 | $968 |
| Mediocre-Paradise | No | 750 | $726 |
| Ample-Instance | No | 750 | $726 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:36 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.4% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 09:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.1% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 09:06 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.1% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 09:05 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.4% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 08:36 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.4% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 08:14 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.4% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 08:13 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.2% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 08:13 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.1% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 06:26 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.4% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 06:24 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.1% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 3.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025?via=bro
$14.23M in total volume, with $121 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 3.2% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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