As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 2.2% in Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...? — $7.84M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 2.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.1 pts; past month: -0.4 pts.
Since January 12, 2026, December 31 has traded between 2.0% and 13.0%. It opened at 10.5% and last traded at 2.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 2.6% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 2.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 2.2% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 2.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 2.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 2.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 2.2% |
December 31 is favored at 2.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 2¢ | 2.2% | — | $863.8K | 11.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$7.84M has been traded on this event in total, $6 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 58,803 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Serious-Governance | Yes | 58,803 | $1.3K |
| Dearest-Operator | No | 45,304 | $44.3K |
| Flashy-Label | No | 42,125 | $41.2K |
| Jubilant-Aggradation | Yes | 14,286 | $321 |
| Peppery-Capital | No | 12,061 | $11.8K |
| Kooky-Certification | No | 10,519 | $10.3K |
| Quick-Trial | Yes | 10,000 | $225 |
| Periodic-Maggot | Yes | 9,083 | $204 |
| Dull-Dollar | No | 8,869 | $8.7K |
| Bare-Toothpaste | No | 8,472 | $8.3K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:06 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.5% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 02:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.1% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 02:43 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.3% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 11:20 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.2% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 09:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.3% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 05:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.7% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 03:10 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.3% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 01:22 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.7% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 11:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 10:15 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.3% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 2.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-by?via=bro
$7.84M in total volume, with $6 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 2.2% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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