As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 97.1% in Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? — $10.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 97.1%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.2 pts; past month: +2.6 pts.
Since July 24, 2026, Yes has traded between 73.5% and 97.3%. It opened at 73.5% and last traded at 97.1%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 97.2% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.3% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 97.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.1% |
Yes is favored at 97.1%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 97¢ | 97.1% | — | $10.1K | 100.0% |
| No | 3¢ | 2.9% | — | $10.1K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 95¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$10.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF). This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data. The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Resolution source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 961 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exhausted-String | No | 961 | $28 |
| LlamaLoco0000 | Yes | 849 | $824 |
| Natural-Intensity | Yes | 638 | $620 |
| Digital-Risk | No | 599 | $17 |
| Corny-Hyphenation | Yes | 422 | $410 |
| Inconsequential-Chowder | No | 420 | $12 |
| Liquid-Spirituality | Yes | 300 | $291 |
| Yawning-Admission | Yes | 110 | $107 |
| Evil-Row | No | 100 | $3 |
| Bouncy-Saving | No | 42 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 09:35 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 94.8% | $307 |
| Oct 07, 06:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.0% | $1 |
| Oct 04, 12:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 94.9% | $95 |
| Oct 04, 12:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 95.8% | $119 |
| Sep 27, 05:41 AM ET | No | SELL | 4.3% | $1 |
| Sep 27, 05:41 AM ET | No | SELL | 4.2% | $1 |
| Sep 27, 05:41 AM ET | No | SELL | 4.9% | $1 |
| Sep 27, 05:41 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 94.9% | $139 |
| Sep 25, 01:50 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 93.6% | $1 |
| Sep 22, 09:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 96.0% | $19 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 97.1%. Next is No at 2.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-a-super-el-nino-this-winter-202627-20260721221614682?via=bro
$10.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/.
Yes, priced at 97.1% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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