As of October 24, 2026, 08:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.6% in Will Trump announce an acquisition of part of the Chagos Islands before 2027? — $3.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.6%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.1 pts; past month: +0.1 pts.
Since June 10, 2026, No has traded between 47.5% and 98.5%. It opened at 61.0% and last traded at 96.6%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 96.4% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.6% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.6% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.6% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.6% |
No is favored at 96.6%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 97¢ | 96.6% | — | $3.1K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 3¢ | 3.4% | — | $3.1K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that at least some territory on the Chagos Islands will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of any of the Chagos Archipelago from either the United Kingdom or Mauritius to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. Basing rights, military leases, or access agreements alone do not constitute sovereignty transfer. An official announcement made by the United States and either the United Kingdom or Mauritius that territory within the Chagos Archipelago will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur or if such announcement is pending ratification, parliamentary approval, or other conditional legislative steps. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, United Kingdom, or Mauritius, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that land on the Chagos Archipelago has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,082 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp-Astrakhan | No | 1,082 | $1.0K |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 359 | $12 |
| Tremendous-Divide | Yes | 250 | $8 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Hemisphere | Yes | 194 | $7 |
| Trustworthy-Crayon | Yes | 100 | $3 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 82 | $3 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 50 | $2 |
| Illiterate-Swim-Bail | Yes | 31 | $1 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 25 | $1 |
| Tiny-Whisper | No | 24 | $23 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:59 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.0% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 04:13 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.8% | $2 |
| Oct 19, 03:11 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.2% | $22 |
| Oct 15, 07:31 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.5% | $8 |
| Oct 15, 05:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $7 |
| Oct 15, 04:27 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.9% | $14 |
| Oct 15, 03:24 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $19 |
| Oct 15, 03:20 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.7% | $0 |
| Oct 15, 03:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.7% | $2 |
| Oct 15, 02:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.2% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.6%. Next is Yes at 3.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-announce-an-acquisition-of-part-of-the-chagos-islands-before-2027-20260609184517049?via=bro
$3.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 96.6% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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