Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Trump announce an acquisition of part of the Chagos Islands before 2027?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.6% in Will Trump announce an acquisition of part of the Chagos Islands before 2027? — $3.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
97%
A 96.6% price implies roughly a 97-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −0.1 pts30D +0.1 pts
No96.6%
Yes3.4%
Bid
2¢
Ask
5¢
Spread
3¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since June 10, 2026: 47.5% – 98.5% · Opened at 61.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Trump announce an acquisition of part of the Chagos Islands before 2027?
Category
Politics, United Kingdom, international affairs
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$3.1K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$11.7K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 96.6%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.6%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.1 pts; past month: +0.1 pts.

Since June 10, 2026, No has traded between 47.5% and 98.5%. It opened at 61.0% and last traded at 96.6%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202696.4%
Oct 18, 202696.5%
Oct 19, 202696.5%
Oct 20, 202696.6%
Oct 22, 202696.6%
Oct 23, 202696.6%
Oct 24, 202696.6%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 96.6%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No97¢96.6%—$3.1K100.0%
Yes3¢3.4%—$3.1K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$3.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that at least some territory on the Chagos Islands will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of any of the Chagos Archipelago from either the United Kingdom or Mauritius to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. Basing rights, military leases, or access agreements alone do not constitute sovereignty transfer. An official announcement made by the United States and either the United Kingdom or Mauritius that territory within the Chagos Archipelago will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur or if such announcement is pending ratification, parliamentary approval, or other conditional legislative steps. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, United Kingdom, or Mauritius, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that land on the Chagos Archipelago has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,082 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Sharp-AstrakhanNo1,082$1.0K
Belated-GlueYes359$12
Tremendous-DivideYes250$8
Kaleidoscopic-HemisphereYes194$7
Trustworthy-CrayonYes100$3
Evil-RowYes82$3
Snappy-RoosterYes50$2
Illiterate-Swim-BailYes31$1
Direct-ChainstayYes25$1
Tiny-WhisperNo24$23

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $1,000 at 92.4%BUY No — $23 at 97.0%SELL No — $22 at 95.2%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 02:59 PM ETYesSELL2.0%$0
Oct 19, 04:13 PM ETYesBUY4.8%$2
Oct 19, 03:11 PM ETNoSELL95.2%$22
Oct 15, 07:31 AM ETYesBUY6.5%$8
Oct 15, 05:34 AM ETYesBUY10.0%$7
Oct 15, 04:27 AM ETNoSELL93.9%$14
Oct 15, 03:24 AM ETNoSELL95.0%$19
Oct 15, 03:20 AM ETYesSELL4.7%$0
Oct 15, 03:20 AM ETYesBUY4.7%$2
Oct 15, 02:20 AM ETYesBUY3.2%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Trump announce an acquisition of part of the Chagos Islands before 2027??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.6%. Next is Yes at 3.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-announce-an-acquisition-of-part-of-the-chagos-islands-before-2027-20260609184517049?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Trump announce an acquisition of part of the Chagos Islands before 2027??

$3.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Trump announce an acquisition of part of the Chagos Islands before 2027? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Trump announce an acquisition of part of the Chagos Islands before 2027?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 96.6% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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