Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.7% in Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027? — $13.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
95%
A 94.7% price implies roughly a 95-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +0.1 pts30D +1.4 pts
No94.7%
Yes5.3%
Bid
4¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 10, 2026: 92.5% – 96.5% · Opened at 96.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027?
Category
Trump, Tariffs, Politics
Scheduled end
March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$13.0K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$19.4K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 94.7%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.7%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.1 pts; past month: +1.4 pts.

Since September 10, 2026, No has traded between 92.5% and 96.5%. It opened at 96.5% and last traded at 94.7%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202695.5%
Oct 15, 202695.5%
Oct 16, 202694.8%
Oct 18, 202694.8%
Oct 19, 202694.8%
Oct 20, 202694.8%
Oct 24, 202694.7%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 94.7%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No95¢94.7%—$13.0K100.0%
Yes5¢5.3%—$13.0K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$13.0K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates a general dividend, rebate, or stimulus payment meeting the criteria below by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whether by signing federal legislation, by executive action, or by any other official mechanism. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill enacted into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. To qualify, the payment must be for an amount of at least $5,000 per recipient and must be distributed to a broad segment of individual US taxpayers. A payment is "broad" if eligibility for it extends to at least a majority (50%) of U.S. individual taxpayers, or if eligibility is limited only by general income thresholds and/or household or filing status rather than by any narrower category. The payment must be established as a new, distinct dividend, rebate, or stimulus payment. A payment structured as a new refundable tax credit, an advance payment of a new credit, or a direct disbursement by the Treasury will qualify, regardless of the legal mechanism used to deliver it. An increase to, expansion of, or acceleration of a tax credit, deduction, or refund that existed as of market creation, will not qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,592 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Punctual-SandNo2,592$2.5K
Peppery-CapitalYes1,020$54
Nonstop-BadgerYes978$52
Brisk-MelatoninNo633$600
Kaleidoscopic-HemisphereYes562$30
Cheerful-EphemeraNo510$483
Silent-ExileYes500$27
Scary-SealYes367$19
Arctic-KickoffNo312$295
Prickly-OffenseNo300$284

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $94 at 93.9%SELL No — $63 at 94.5%SELL No — $19 at 93.7%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 18, 05:12 PM ETYesSELL4.2%$0
Oct 18, 05:12 PM ETYesBUY6.5%$10
Oct 16, 03:52 PM ETNoSELL94.5%$63
Oct 16, 01:16 PM ETYesSELL3.9%$1
Oct 14, 10:50 PM ETNoSELL95.0%$10
Oct 14, 09:42 AM ETNoBUY96.1%$1
Oct 11, 01:17 AM ETYesSELL3.9%$1
Oct 11, 01:17 AM ETYesSELL3.9%$2
Oct 11, 01:17 AM ETYesSELL3.9%$1
Oct 11, 01:11 AM ETYesBUY4.3%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.7%. Next is Yes at 5.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-create-a-5000-dividend-by-march-31-2027?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027??

$13.0K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027? end?

The market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 94.7% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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