As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.7% in Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027? — $13.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.1 pts; past month: +1.4 pts.
Since September 10, 2026, No has traded between 92.5% and 96.5%. It opened at 96.5% and last traded at 94.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 94.7% |
No is favored at 94.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95¢ | 94.7% | — | $13.0K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 5¢ | 5.3% | — | $13.0K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$13.0K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates a general dividend, rebate, or stimulus payment meeting the criteria below by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whether by signing federal legislation, by executive action, or by any other official mechanism. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill enacted into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. To qualify, the payment must be for an amount of at least $5,000 per recipient and must be distributed to a broad segment of individual US taxpayers. A payment is "broad" if eligibility for it extends to at least a majority (50%) of U.S. individual taxpayers, or if eligibility is limited only by general income thresholds and/or household or filing status rather than by any narrower category. The payment must be established as a new, distinct dividend, rebate, or stimulus payment. A payment structured as a new refundable tax credit, an advance payment of a new credit, or a direct disbursement by the Treasury will qualify, regardless of the legal mechanism used to deliver it. An increase to, expansion of, or acceleration of a tax credit, deduction, or refund that existed as of market creation, will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,592 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Punctual-Sand | No | 2,592 | $2.5K |
| Peppery-Capital | Yes | 1,020 | $54 |
| Nonstop-Badger | Yes | 978 | $52 |
| Brisk-Melatonin | No | 633 | $600 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Hemisphere | Yes | 562 | $30 |
| Cheerful-Ephemera | No | 510 | $483 |
| Silent-Exile | Yes | 500 | $27 |
| Scary-Seal | Yes | 367 | $19 |
| Arctic-Kickoff | No | 312 | $295 |
| Prickly-Offense | No | 300 | $284 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 05:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.2% | $0 |
| Oct 18, 05:12 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.5% | $10 |
| Oct 16, 03:52 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.5% | $63 |
| Oct 16, 01:16 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.9% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 10:50 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $10 |
| Oct 14, 09:42 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.1% | $1 |
| Oct 11, 01:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.9% | $1 |
| Oct 11, 01:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.9% | $2 |
| Oct 11, 01:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.9% | $1 |
| Oct 11, 01:11 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.3% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.7%. Next is Yes at 5.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-create-a-5000-dividend-by-march-31-2027?via=bro
$13.0K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 94.7% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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