As of October 24, 2026, 08:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 92.5% in Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026? — $3.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 92.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +1.5 pts; past month: +2.0 pts.
Since June 29, 2026, No has traded between 52.0% and 94.5%. It opened at 52.0% and last traded at 92.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 92.5% |
No is favored at 92.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 92¢ | 92.5% | — | $3.3K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 8¢ | 7.5% | — | $3.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 7¢ / ask 8¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 659 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tremendous-Divide | Yes | 659 | $49 |
| Plastic-Larder | No | 651 | $602 |
| Animated-Zampone | Yes | 362 | $27 |
| Failing-Obsidian | No | 336 | $311 |
| Happy-Dinosaur | No | 190 | $176 |
| Modern-Malice | Yes | 100 | $8 |
| Frivolous-Countryside | No | 95 | $88 |
| Worried-Poem | No | 89 | $83 |
| Pitiful-Suburb | Yes | 69 | $5 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 61 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 08:09 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 12:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 12:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $4 |
| Oct 14, 03:40 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $84 |
| Oct 04, 04:21 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $4 |
| Oct 02, 10:57 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.9% | $3 |
| Sep 20, 04:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $11 |
| Sep 17, 10:23 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $1 |
| Sep 16, 05:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $3 |
| Sep 16, 05:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $52 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 92.5%. Next is Yes at 7.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-create-a-tariff-dividend-by-december-31-2026-20260628223032088?via=bro
$3.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 92.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.