As of October 24, 2026, 08:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 87.5% in Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027? — $2.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 87.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.5 pts; past week: +4.0 pts; past month: -4.0 pts.
Since November 05, 2025, No has traded between 46.5% and 93.0%. It opened at 54.0% and last traded at 89.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 88.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 89.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 89.0% |
No is favored at 87.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 88¢ | 87.5% | -3.5 pts | $2.6K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 12¢ | 12.5% | +3.5 pts | $2.6K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 13¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 19¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.6K has been traded on this event in total, $64 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 177 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Playful-Manservant | No | 177 | $155 |
| Ragged-Placode | No | 163 | $143 |
| Crazy-Fishmonger | No | 135 | $118 |
| Crowded-Ring | Yes | 100 | $12 |
| Double-Valley | Yes | 100 | $12 |
| Slow-Exhibit | No | 100 | $88 |
| Imaginative-Shoes | Yes | 88 | $11 |
| Swift-Lightning | No | 87 | $76 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 85 | $11 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 72 | $9 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:54 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.1% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 02:28 PM ET | No | SELL | 84.4% | $41 |
| Oct 06, 01:30 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $5 |
| Oct 03, 12:47 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $45 |
| Oct 03, 12:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $27 |
| Oct 03, 12:02 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $36 |
| Sep 29, 08:08 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $18 |
| Sep 28, 11:51 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $17 |
| Sep 28, 07:20 AM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $79 |
| Sep 24, 07:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 86.0% | $8 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 87.5%. Next is Yes at 12.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-cut-long-term-capital-gains-tax-before-2027?via=bro
$2.6K in total volume, with $64 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 87.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.