As of October 24, 2026, 07:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 90.0% in Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? — $59.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 90.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.5 pts; past month: -2.5 pts.
Since January 14, 2026, No has traded between 55.5% and 90.5%. It opened at 68.5% and last traded at 90.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 90.0% |
No is favored at 90.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 90¢ | 90.0% | — | $59.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 10¢ | 10.0% | — | $59.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 9¢ / ask 11¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$59.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Donald Trump showed the middle finger to an individual heckling him at a Minnesota Ford plant on January 13 (see: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/ford-plant-trump-middle-finger-flip). This market will resolve to “Yes” if photo or video evidence shows Donald Trump giving the middle finger to anybody else by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying video or photo must show Donald Trump raising his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in the gesture commonly referred to as “flipping the bird”. Evidence must show Trump making the gesture in a context that could reasonably indicate it is directed at a person or group, even if it does not indicate so definitively. Past instances such as Donald Trump showing his middle finger at a Black History Month event (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-middle-finger/4654155) or while speaking to female astronauts (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-flips-off-women-astronauts/4823553) would both count. Photo or video evidence of Trump extending his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in a context which in no way indicates that the gesture was intentional or directed at an individual or group will not count. AI-generated images or video will not count. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/ford-plant-trump-middle-finger-flip
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,809 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sardonic-Archer | No | 1,809 | $1.6K |
| Kaleidoscopic-Hemisphere | Yes | 1,697 | $170 |
| Elastic-Literature | No | 1,666 | $1.5K |
| Curvy-Residue | No | 1,104 | $993 |
| Unkempt-Parchment | Yes | 844 | $84 |
| Inferior-Implement | Yes | 507 | $51 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 425 | $42 |
| Poor-Footage | No | 400 | $360 |
| Unwieldy-Quince | Yes | 383 | $38 |
| Nervous-Proposition | Yes | 253 | $25 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 06:33 AM ET | No | SELL | 89.4% | $29 |
| Oct 22, 01:08 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $110 |
| Oct 22, 01:08 PM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $50 |
| Oct 22, 05:21 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 03:01 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 09:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $7 |
| Oct 05, 01:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $7 |
| Oct 05, 01:35 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 05, 01:35 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 90.0%. Next is Yes at 10.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-flip-the-bird-again-in-2026?via=bro
$59.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/ford-plant-trump-middle-finger-flip.
No, priced at 90.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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