As of October 24, 2026, 06:34 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 78.5% in Will Trump pardon anyone by...? — $5.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 78.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +12.0 pts; past week: -9.5 pts.
Since October 14, 2026, December 31 has traded between 66.5% and 91.0%. It opened at 91.0% and last traded at 78.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 88.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 88.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 88.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 72.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 78.5% |
December 31 is favored at 78.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 78¢ | 78.5% | +12.0 pts | $4.1K | 71.7% |
| October 31 | 14¢ | 13.5% | -11.0 pts | $1.6K | 28.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 9¢ (bid 74¢ / ask 83¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$5.8K has been traded on this event in total, $732 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,016 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watchful-Bassoon | No | 1,016 | $219 |
| Playful-Chop-Havoc | Yes | 566 | $444 |
| Accurate-Decoder | Yes | 464 | $364 |
| Dutiful-Contour | Yes | 319 | $250 |
| Authorized-Mandolin | Yes | 314 | $246 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 220 | $47 |
| Tangible-Exasperation-Grit | Yes | 113 | $88 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 90 | $19 |
| Golden-Panpipe | No | 70 | $15 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 67 | $14 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 26.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 24.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 04:26 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 11:47 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 11:44 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 76.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 11:41 AM ET | No | SELL | 83.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 11:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 77.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 11:33 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 85.0% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 11:33 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 89.0% | $64 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 78.5%. Next is October 31 at 13.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-pardon-anyone-byptptpt-20261014?via=bro
$5.8K in total volume, with $732 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 78.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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