As of October 24, 2026, 06:27 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 24 at 97.6% in Will Trump publicly insult someone on...? — $68.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 24, is priced at 97.6%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.4 pts; past week: +1.7 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, October 24 has traded between 45.0% and 97.6%. It opened at 45.0% and last traded at 97.6%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.4% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.9% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.6% |
October 24 is favored at 97.6%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 24 | 98¢ | 97.6% | +0.4 pts | $6.4K | 9.3% |
| October 25 | 97¢ | 97.4% | -0.3 pts | $3.3K | 4.8% |
| October 26 | 97¢ | 96.9% | +0.9 pts | $7.4K | 10.7% |
| October 29 | 96¢ | 96.5% | +1.0 pts | $820 | 1.2% |
| October 30 | 96¢ | 96.5% | +0.1 pts | $2.0K | 2.9% |
| October 27 | 96¢ | 96.4% | -2.0 pts | $2.3K | 3.4% |
| October 28 | 96¢ | 96.0% | +0.4 pts | $1.3K | 1.8% |
| October 31 | 92¢ | 91.5% | +2.5 pts | $3.4K | 4.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 96¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$68.6K has been traded on this event in total, $1.7K of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes a public statement in which he insults any non-fictional individual on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available on the specified date (ET). Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,542 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarrelsome-Filth | Yes | 1,542 | $1.5K |
| Grim-Garage | No | 405 | $10 |
| Flippant-Hacienda | No | 300 | $7 |
| Essential-Diarist | No | 250 | $6 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | No | 180 | $4 |
| Angelic-Craw | No | 160 | $4 |
| Sympathetic-Shutdown | No | 128 | $3 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 117 | $3 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 55 | $53 |
| Grumpy-Cloves-Consist | No | 54 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 1.1% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:52 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 95.4% | $240 |
| Oct 24, 07:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.5% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:52 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 95.5% | $67 |
| Oct 24, 07:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.2% | $307 |
| Oct 24, 07:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.1% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.1% | $248 |
| Oct 23, 10:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 93.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 10:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 91.9% | $284 |
| Oct 23, 10:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 94.0% | $23 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 24 at 97.6%. Next is October 25 at 97.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-publicly-insult-someone-on-october-2026-20261001004229017?via=bro
$68.6K in total volume, with $1.7K traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
October 24, priced at 97.6% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.