Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:27 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 24 at 97.6% in Will Trump publicly insult someone on...? — $68.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.7K.
Leading outcome
October 24
98%
A 97.6% price implies roughly a 98-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +0.4 pts7D +1.7 pts
October 2497.6%
October 2597.4%
Bid
96¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
4¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 01, 2026: 45.0% – 97.6% · Opened at 45.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
Category
Trump, Culture, Politics, Trump Daily
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$68.6K
Volume (24h)
$1.7K
Liquidity
$5.0K
Markets
8
Leading outcome
October 24 — 97.6%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, October 24, is priced at 97.6%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.4 pts; past week: +1.7 pts.

Since October 01, 2026, October 24 has traded between 45.0% and 97.6%. It opened at 45.0% and last traded at 97.6%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202694.4%
Oct 18, 202696.5%
Oct 19, 202696.5%
Oct 20, 202696.9%
Oct 22, 202697.0%
Oct 23, 202697.2%
Oct 24, 202697.6%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

October 24 is favored at 97.6%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
October 2498¢97.6%+0.4 pts$6.4K9.3%
October 2597¢97.4%-0.3 pts$3.3K4.8%
October 2697¢96.9%+0.9 pts$7.4K10.7%
October 2996¢96.5%+1.0 pts$8201.2%
October 3096¢96.5%+0.1 pts$2.0K2.9%
October 2796¢96.4%-2.0 pts$2.3K3.4%
October 2896¢96.0%+0.4 pts$1.3K1.8%
October 3192¢91.5%+2.5 pts$3.4K4.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 96¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$68.6K has been traded on this event in total, $1.7K of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes a public statement in which he insults any non-fictional individual on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available on the specified date (ET). Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,542 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Quarrelsome-FilthYes1,542$1.5K
Grim-GarageNo405$10
Flippant-HaciendaNo300$7
Essential-DiaristNo250$6
Straight-WrinkleNo180$4
Angelic-CrawNo160$4
Sympathetic-ShutdownNo128$3
Snappy-RoosterNo117$3
Belated-GlueYes55$53
Grumpy-Cloves-ConsistNo54$1

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $3.1K at 89.1%SELL Yes — $327 at 96.6%SELL Yes — $318 at 94.1%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 12:27 PM ETNoSELL1.1%$1
Oct 24, 07:52 AM ETYesSELL95.4%$240
Oct 24, 07:52 AM ETYesBUY99.5%$1
Oct 24, 07:52 AM ETYesSELL95.5%$67
Oct 24, 07:52 AM ETYesBUY99.2%$307
Oct 24, 07:52 AM ETYesBUY99.1%$1
Oct 24, 07:52 AM ETYesBUY99.1%$248
Oct 23, 10:30 PM ETYesBUY93.0%$1
Oct 23, 10:30 PM ETYesBUY91.9%$284
Oct 23, 10:30 PM ETYesBUY94.0%$23

Related markets

More Politics

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Trump publicly insult someone on...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 24 at 97.6%. Next is October 25 at 97.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-publicly-insult-someone-on-october-2026-20261001004229017?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Trump publicly insult someone on...??

$68.6K in total volume, with $1.7K traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.

When does Will Trump publicly insult someone on...? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?, according to Polymarket traders?

October 24, priced at 97.6% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.