Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price September 23 at 38.0% in Will Trump publicly insult someone on...? — $114.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
September 23
38%
A 38.0% price implies roughly a 38-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −2.0 pts7D −2.5 pts30D +19.0 pts
Bid
8¢
Ask
68¢
Spread
60¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 02, 2026: 16.0% – 92.5% · Opened at 90.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
Category
Trump, Culture, Politics, Trump Daily
Scheduled end
September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$114.6K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$56
Markets
1
Leading outcome
September 23 — 38.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, September 23, is priced at 38.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.0 pts; past week: -2.5 pts; past month: +19.0 pts.

Since September 02, 2026, September 23 has traded between 16.0% and 92.5%. It opened at 90.0% and last traded at 38.0%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202632.0%
Oct 15, 202641.0%
Oct 16, 202640.5%
Oct 18, 202641.0%
Oct 19, 202639.5%
Oct 20, 202637.5%
Oct 24, 202638.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

September 23 is favored at 38.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
September 2338¢38.0%-2.0 pts$1.9K1.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 60¢ (bid 8¢ / ask 68¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$114.6K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes a public statement in which he insults any non-fictional individual on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available on the specified date (ET). Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 190 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Realistic-PayoffNo190$118
Grimy-TurnstileNo56$35
Belated-GlueYes56$21
Famous-FleckNo54$34
Helpful-CheeseYes46$18
Sneaky-SpouseYes41$16
Yummy-WinterYes40$15
Last-CocktailNo32$20
Uncommon-Gutter-StanceNo30$19
Content-TripodYes24$9

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $50 at 89.1%SELL No — $16 at 78.0%BUY No — $13 at 67.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 02:47 PM ETNoBUY92.0%$2
Oct 16, 02:22 AM ETYesSELL29.0%$6
Oct 16, 02:16 AM ETYesBUY19.0%$4
Oct 15, 07:54 AM ETYesSELL29.0%$6
Oct 15, 07:51 AM ETYesBUY19.0%$4
Oct 15, 06:04 AM ETYesSELL7.9%$4
Oct 14, 10:46 PM ETYesSELL29.0%$6
Oct 14, 10:27 PM ETYesBUY19.0%$4
Oct 14, 05:43 AM ETYesSELL27.0%$5
Oct 14, 04:17 AM ETYesSELL29.0%$6

Related markets

More Politics

Brazil Presidential Election

Flávio Bolsonaro 83.8% · 24H VOL $2.01M

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia 71.5% · 24H VOL $649.0K

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Trump publicly insult someone on...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is September 23 at 38.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-publicly-insult-someone-on-september-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Trump publicly insult someone on...??

$114.6K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Trump publicly insult someone on...? end?

The market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?, according to Polymarket traders?

September 23, priced at 38.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.