As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 95.0% in Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? — $183.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 95.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.6 pts; past week: +1.4 pts; past month: -4.1 pts.
Since December 26, 2025, No has traded between 61.5% and 97.4%. It opened at 61.5% and last traded at 96.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 95.8% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.5% |
No is favored at 95.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95¢ | 95.0% | -0.6 pts | $183.3K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 5¢ | 5.1% | +0.6 pts | $183.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$183.3K has been traded on this event in total, $223 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with the U.S. but do not formally recognize the country as a sovereign state will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 16,886 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| LlamaLoco0000 | Yes | 16,886 | $853 |
| Bleak-Full | No | 14,173 | $13.5K |
| Favorite-Mammoth | No | 7,000 | $6.6K |
| Wooden-Prescription | No | 5,000 | $4.7K |
| Natural-Vacation | No | 4,473 | $4.2K |
| Snoopy-Sediment | Yes | 4,210 | $213 |
| Quick-Therapist | No | 3,257 | $3.1K |
| Disguised-Spider | Yes | 2,343 | $118 |
| Impossible-Foxglove | Yes | 1,646 | $83 |
| 0x61c35b46… | Yes | 1,547 | $78 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 10:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.5% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 10:08 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.9% | $19 |
| Oct 23, 10:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.5% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 10:07 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.5% | $167 |
| Oct 23, 10:38 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.9% | $14 |
| Oct 23, 10:37 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.9% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 02:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.6% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 09:14 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.9% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 09:14 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.5% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 09:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.2% | $9 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 95.0%. Next is Yes at 5.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-recognize-somaliland-before-2027?via=bro
$183.3K in total volume, with $223 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 95.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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