As of October 24, 2026, 08:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 92.7% in Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027? — $3.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 92.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: -0.2 pts; past month: -0.4 pts.
Since November 05, 2025, No has traded between 44.5% and 99.6%. It opened at 67.5% and last traded at 92.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 93.1% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 92.8% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 92.7% |
No is favored at 92.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 93¢ | 92.7% | +0.1 pts | $3.6K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 7¢ | 7.3% | -0.1 pts | $3.6K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 9¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.6K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Resolution source: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 736 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Happy-Dinosaur | No | 736 | $682 |
| Shadowy-Possible | Yes | 293 | $21 |
| All-Peasant-Drug | Yes | 277 | $20 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 161 | $12 |
| Nutty-Musician | No | 124 | $115 |
| Harmful-Umbrella | No | 116 | $108 |
| Incomplete-Millisecond | No | 96 | $89 |
| Normal-Mariachi | Yes | 83 | $6 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Yes | 75 | $5 |
| Double-Valley | Yes | 67 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 02:08 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.3% | $2 |
| Oct 12, 01:18 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.7% | $9 |
| Oct 12, 01:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.5% | $0 |
| Oct 12, 01:18 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.5% | $1 |
| Oct 12, 01:18 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.5% | $9 |
| Oct 12, 01:18 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.4% | $38 |
| Oct 07, 12:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.7% | $2 |
| Oct 07, 12:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.4% | $38 |
| Oct 07, 12:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.2% | $38 |
| Oct 07, 12:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.3% | $38 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 92.7%. Next is Yes at 7.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-reduce-the-deficit-before-2027?via=bro
$3.6K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government.
No, priced at 92.7% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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