Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:00 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 19.5% in Will Trump rename an ocean by...? — $44.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $142.
Leading outcome
December 31, 2027
20%
A 19.5% price implies roughly a 20-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −2.5 pts7D −14.5 pts
December 31, 202719.5%
December 31, 20266.0%
Bid
19¢
Ask
20¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 12, 2026: 17.5% – 45.5% · Opened at 45.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Trump rename an ocean by...?
Category
Trump, World, Politics, Trump Presidency
Scheduled end
December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$44.1K
Volume (24h)
$142
Liquidity
$30.0K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31, 2027 — 19.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 19.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.5 pts; past week: -14.5 pts.

Since October 12, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 17.5% and 45.5%. It opened at 45.5% and last traded at 19.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202633.0%
Oct 16, 202634.0%
Oct 18, 202631.5%
Oct 19, 202617.5%
Oct 20, 202617.5%
Oct 24, 202619.5%
Oct 24, 202619.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31, 2027 is favored at 19.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 31, 202720¢19.5%-2.5 pts$4.3K9.9%
December 31, 20266¢6.0%-0.5 pts$39.7K90.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 19¢ / ask 20¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$44.1K has been traded on this event in total, $142 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order to, or signs any bill into law to, or otherwise takes action to officially rename any ocean by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, the oceans are defined as: the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, the Arctic Ocean, and the Southern/Antarctic Ocean. Officially renaming any one of these five oceans is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of the new name chosen. Renaming a subdivision of one of these oceans, such as the North Atlantic Ocean or the South Pacific Ocean, will also qualify. If the U.S. Board on Geographic Names (BGN) renames any of the five oceans accordingly this will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Renaming any other body of water, including any sea, gulf, bay, strait, channel, or lake, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration or the U.S. Board on Geographic Names, however a consensus of credible reporting stating that the US Government has renamed one of the five oceans will suffice.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 600 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Criminal-BestsellerNo600$483
NoSteinNoGateYes430$84
Belated-GlueYes267$52
Trained-SniffleNo263$211
Evil-RowYes49$10
0x46299616…Yes30$6
Cheerful-EphemeraYes30$6
Known-UseNo20$16
Writhing-RoundYes20$4
Apt-AntecedentYes20$4

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $732 at 95.4%BUY No — $602 at 96.0%SELL No — $355 at 64.5%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 02:56 AM ETYesSELL5.5%$8
Oct 23, 05:40 PM ETYesSELL5.6%$5
Oct 23, 03:53 PM ETYesBUY6.6%$11
Oct 23, 03:53 PM ETYesBUY7.2%$1
Oct 23, 02:53 PM ETYesBUY18.0%$1
Oct 23, 01:00 PM ETNoBUY94.4%$19
Oct 23, 01:00 PM ETNoBUY94.4%$41
Oct 23, 12:46 PM ETNoBUY94.4%$28
Oct 23, 09:50 AM ETYesSELL5.6%$5
Oct 23, 08:22 AM ETNoSELL88.6%$18

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Trump rename an ocean by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 19.5%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 6.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-rename-an-ocean-in-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Trump rename an ocean by...??

$44.1K in total volume, with $142 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Will Trump rename an ocean by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Trump rename an ocean by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, 2027, priced at 19.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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