As of October 24, 2026, 08:00 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 19.5% in Will Trump rename an ocean by...? — $44.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 19.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.5 pts; past week: -14.5 pts.
Since October 12, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 17.5% and 45.5%. It opened at 45.5% and last traded at 19.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 33.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 34.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 31.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 17.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 17.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 19.5% |
December 31, 2027 is favored at 19.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 20¢ | 19.5% | -2.5 pts | $4.3K | 9.9% |
| December 31, 2026 | 6¢ | 6.0% | -0.5 pts | $39.7K | 90.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 19¢ / ask 20¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$44.1K has been traded on this event in total, $142 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order to, or signs any bill into law to, or otherwise takes action to officially rename any ocean by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, the oceans are defined as: the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, the Arctic Ocean, and the Southern/Antarctic Ocean. Officially renaming any one of these five oceans is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of the new name chosen. Renaming a subdivision of one of these oceans, such as the North Atlantic Ocean or the South Pacific Ocean, will also qualify. If the U.S. Board on Geographic Names (BGN) renames any of the five oceans accordingly this will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Renaming any other body of water, including any sea, gulf, bay, strait, channel, or lake, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration or the U.S. Board on Geographic Names, however a consensus of credible reporting stating that the US Government has renamed one of the five oceans will suffice.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 600 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Criminal-Bestseller | No | 600 | $483 |
| NoSteinNoGate | Yes | 430 | $84 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 267 | $52 |
| Trained-Sniffle | No | 263 | $211 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 49 | $10 |
| 0x46299616… | Yes | 30 | $6 |
| Cheerful-Ephemera | Yes | 30 | $6 |
| Known-Use | No | 20 | $16 |
| Writhing-Round | Yes | 20 | $4 |
| Apt-Antecedent | Yes | 20 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:56 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.5% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 05:40 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.6% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 03:53 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.6% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 03:53 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.2% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 02:53 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 01:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.4% | $19 |
| Oct 23, 01:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.4% | $41 |
| Oct 23, 12:46 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.4% | $28 |
| Oct 23, 09:50 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.6% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 08:22 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.6% | $18 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 19.5%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 6.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-rename-an-ocean-in-2026?via=bro
$44.1K in total volume, with $142 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2027, priced at 19.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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