As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.4% in Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? — $553.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.2 pts; past month: -1.1 pts.
Since July 25, 2025, No has traded between 90.0% and 98.4%. It opened at 93.5% and last traded at 98.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.4% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 98.4% |
No is favored at 98.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 98.4% | — | $553.3K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 1.7% | — | $553.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$553.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 29,134 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kooky-Employ | Yes | 29,134 | $481 |
| Capital-Tub | No | 25,217 | $24.8K |
| Used-Channel | Yes | 22,912 | $378 |
| Smallpeepee | No | 20,329 | $20.0K |
| Idealistic-Minion | Yes | 18,252 | $301 |
| Free-Gnat | No | 14,969 | $14.7K |
| Any-Potential | No | 8,765 | $8.6K |
| Regular-Velvet | Yes | 7,500 | $124 |
| Burly-Temperature | No | 7,031 | $6.9K |
| Possible-Brooch | Yes | 7,000 | $116 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 05:32 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.3% | $98 |
| Oct 22, 05:09 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.4% | $5.6K |
| Oct 21, 05:30 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.9% | $2 |
| Oct 19, 06:55 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.2% | $754 |
| Oct 19, 05:34 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.3% | $136 |
| Oct 19, 04:11 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.7% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 04:33 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.7% | $13 |
| Oct 18, 04:33 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.8% | $1 |
| Oct 17, 08:45 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.8% | $2 |
| Oct 17, 04:34 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.8% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.4%. Next is Yes at 1.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-resign-by-december-31-2026?via=bro
$553.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 98.4% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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