Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.5% in Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta? — $4.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
94%
A 94.5% price implies roughly a 94-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −1.0 pts30D −1.0 pts
No94.5%
Yes5.5%
Bid
4¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
3¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since February 06, 2026: 64.5% – 94.5% · Opened at 79.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?
Category
Politics, Trump, annex, Geopolitics, Canada, join
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$4.4K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$11.6K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 94.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.0 pts; past month: -1.0 pts.

Since February 06, 2026, No has traded between 64.5% and 94.5%. It opened at 79.0% and last traded at 94.5%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202693.5%
Oct 18, 202693.5%
Oct 19, 202693.5%
Oct 20, 202694.0%
Oct 22, 202694.5%
Oct 23, 202694.5%
Oct 24, 202694.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 94.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No94¢94.5%—$4.4K100.0%
Yes6¢5.5%—$4.4K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 7¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$4.4K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the US federal government publicly announces that Trump or the United States is seeking to take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count. A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 150 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueYes150$8
Frizzy-BowlingNo138$130
Quiet-ApproachNo106$101
Second-SeafoodYes104$6
BelgaronNo96$91
Delicious-PeninsulaYes71$4
Silent-RowboatNo71$68
Squeaky-PressurizationNo57$54
Negative-SubexpressionNo53$50
baybugNo50$47

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $130 at 94.3%BUY No — $100 at 94.0%BUY No — $46 at 92.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 21, 12:46 AM ETNoBUY96.0%$15
Oct 21, 12:38 AM ETYesBUY6.0%$1
Oct 21, 12:38 AM ETNoBUY95.0%$5
Oct 21, 12:37 AM ETNoBUY95.0%$5
Oct 21, 12:37 AM ETNoBUY95.0%$3
Oct 21, 12:37 AM ETYesBUY7.0%$5
Oct 19, 02:15 PM ETNoBUY95.0%$13
Oct 18, 11:26 PM ETYesSELL5.0%$1
Oct 12, 11:34 AM ETNoBUY94.3%$130
Oct 12, 04:11 AM ETNoSELL93.0%$5

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.5%. Next is Yes at 5.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-try-to-acquire-part-of-alberta?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta??

$4.4K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 94.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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