As of October 24, 2026, 08:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.5% in Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta? — $4.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.0 pts; past month: -1.0 pts.
Since February 06, 2026, No has traded between 64.5% and 94.5%. It opened at 79.0% and last traded at 94.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 94.5% |
No is favored at 94.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 94¢ | 94.5% | — | $4.4K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $4.4K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 7¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.4K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the US federal government publicly announces that Trump or the United States is seeking to take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count. A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 150 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 150 | $8 |
| Frizzy-Bowling | No | 138 | $130 |
| Quiet-Approach | No | 106 | $101 |
| Second-Seafood | Yes | 104 | $6 |
| Belgaron | No | 96 | $91 |
| Delicious-Peninsula | Yes | 71 | $4 |
| Silent-Rowboat | No | 71 | $68 |
| Squeaky-Pressurization | No | 57 | $54 |
| Negative-Subexpression | No | 53 | $50 |
| baybug | No | 50 | $47 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 12:46 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $15 |
| Oct 21, 12:38 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 12:38 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 12:37 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 12:37 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 12:37 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $5 |
| Oct 19, 02:15 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $13 |
| Oct 18, 11:26 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $1 |
| Oct 12, 11:34 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.3% | $130 |
| Oct 12, 04:11 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.5%. Next is Yes at 5.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-try-to-acquire-part-of-alberta?via=bro
$4.4K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 94.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.