As of October 24, 2026, 08:02 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 7.0% in Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...? — $36.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 7.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: -5.5 pts; past month: -3.5 pts.
Since April 17, 2026, December 31 has traded between 6.5% and 39.0%. It opened at 18.5% and last traded at 7.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 13.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 11.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 9.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 8.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 7.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 7.0% |
December 31 is favored at 7.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 7¢ | 7.0% | +0.5 pts | $11.6K | 31.6% |
| October 31 | 2¢ | 1.9% | — | $1.0K | 2.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 8¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$36.8K has been traded on this event in total, $5 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Powell from his role as chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, which do not include removing Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 561 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clueless-Dugout-Tomtom | Yes | 561 | $39 |
| Silent-Obsidian | No | 495 | $461 |
| Common-Nitrogen | Yes | 379 | $27 |
| Square-Trust | No | 305 | $283 |
| Unlined-Marshmallow | No | 300 | $279 |
| Trivial-Idea | Yes | 200 | $14 |
| Slow-Exhibit | No | 200 | $186 |
| Small-Pompom | No | 149 | $139 |
| Peppery-Capital | No | 140 | $130 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 123 | $9 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:45 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $5 |
| Oct 19, 12:15 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.7% | $5 |
| Oct 19, 06:49 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.5% | $20 |
| Oct 17, 08:24 AM ET | No | SELL | 87.0% | $3 |
| Oct 16, 02:17 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.3% | $13 |
| Oct 16, 09:01 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $3 |
| Oct 12, 10:00 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $1 |
| Oct 11, 05:19 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $2 |
| Oct 11, 05:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $5 |
| Oct 11, 05:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 7.0%. Next is October 31 at 1.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-try-to-fire-powell-as-fed-board-member-by?via=bro
$36.8K in total volume, with $5 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 7.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.