As of October 24, 2026, 09:23 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 52.5% in Will Trump's first endorsement before the primaries be the 2028 GOP nominee? — $109 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 52.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.5 pts; past week: +1.5 pts; past month: +9.5 pts.
Since July 30, 2026, No has traded between 28.0% and 76.0%. It opened at 43.0% and last traded at 52.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 53.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 54.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 52.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 56.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 52.5% |
No is favored at 52.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 52¢ | 52.5% | -4.5 pts | $109 | 100.0% |
| Yes | 48¢ | 47.5% | +4.5 pts | $109 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 71¢ (bid 12¢ / ask 83¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$109 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end August 31, 2028, 07:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election by the day before the first Republican presidential primary or caucus for the 2028 cycle, 11:59 PM ET, wins and accepts the Republican Party’s nomination to the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any replacement of the Republican Party’s nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. The following rules govern the determination of the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election: An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States Presidential Election. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plastic-Duck | Yes | 1 | $1 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 1 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 09:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 57.0% | $11 |
| Sep 16, 01:53 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 37.0% | $7 |
| Aug 19, 04:58 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 52.0% | $18 |
| Aug 19, 03:45 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 28.0% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 52.5%. Next is Yes at 47.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trumps-first-endorsement-before-the-primaries-be-the-2028-gop-nominee-20260730151739851?via=bro
$109 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end August 31, 2028, 07:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 52.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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