As of October 24, 2026, 09:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 67.5% in Will Trump's first pick win the 2028 US presidential election? — $1.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 67.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.5 pts; past month: +13.5 pts.
Since July 30, 2026, No has traded between 64.5% and 84.0%. It opened at 71.5% and last traded at 67.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 67.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 67.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 67.5% |
No is favored at 67.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 68¢ | 67.5% | — | $1.6K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 32¢ | 32.5% | — | $1.6K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 30¢ / ask 35¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.6K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 07, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election wins the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The following rules govern the determination of the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election: An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States Presidential Election. An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination in the 2028 United States Presidential Election will qualify as an endorsement for the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 184 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single-Challenge | No | 184 | $124 |
| Fat-Fat-Hourglass | Yes | 137 | $45 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 106 | $72 |
| bakayo33 - 9934 | Yes | 100 | $32 |
| Verifiable-Obstacle | Yes | 67 | $22 |
| Plastic-Duck | No | 14 | $9 |
| Tangible-Baritone | No | 12 | $8 |
| Capital-Eviction | Yes | 8 | $2 |
| Annual-Selection-Baboon | Yes | 6 | $2 |
| 0xca75fbad… | No | 3 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 12:19 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 30.0% | $2 |
| Oct 11, 10:27 AM ET | No | BUY | 72.0% | $9 |
| Oct 11, 10:26 AM ET | No | BUY | 67.0% | $5 |
| Oct 11, 10:26 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $26 |
| Sep 28, 06:09 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 30.0% | $1 |
| Sep 28, 01:51 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 30.0% | $1 |
| Sep 26, 02:15 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 25.0% | $25 |
| Sep 26, 01:03 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 24.0% | $2 |
| Sep 26, 12:49 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 25.0% | $2 |
| Sep 25, 08:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 26.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 67.5%. Next is Yes at 32.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trumps-first-pick-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election-20260727202646079?via=bro
$1.6K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 07, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 67.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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