As of October 24, 2026, 07:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 30.5% in Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...? — $88.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 30.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: -6.0 pts; past month: -5.5 pts.
Since May 27, 2026, December 31 has traded between 27.5% and 69.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 31.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 34.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 34.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 40.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 36.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 38.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 37.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 31.5% |
December 31 is favored at 30.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 30¢ | 30.5% | -1.0 pts | $30.3K | 34.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 30¢ / ask 31¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$88.5K has been traded on this event in total, $19 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Obratne (47.827331° N, 36.548744° E) or Temyrivka (47.825114° N, 36.570672° E), Zaporizhzhya Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,506 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nimble-Thermals | No | 1,506 | $1.0K |
| Dental-Egghead-Ban | No | 1,481 | $1.0K |
| Cylindrical-Ale | Yes | 999 | $305 |
| Ashamed-Roster | Yes | 911 | $278 |
| Superior-Olive | Yes | 848 | $259 |
| Impolite-Mode | Yes | 815 | $249 |
| Yellow-Bother | No | 707 | $491 |
| Weird-Freedom | No | 500 | $348 |
| High-Alarm | No | 389 | $270 |
| Charming-Grape | Yes | 325 | $99 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 32.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 12:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $16 |
| Oct 23, 11:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 38.0% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 11:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $36 |
| Oct 23, 07:02 AM ET | No | SELL | 67.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 09:29 AM ET | No | BUY | 66.0% | $26 |
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 31.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 09:13 PM ET | No | SELL | 68.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 09:06 AM ET | No | SELL | 63.0% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 09:06 AM ET | No | SELL | 63.0% | $9 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 30.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-re-enter-obratne-or-temyrivka-by-march-31?via=bro
$88.5K in total volume, with $19 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375.
December 31, priced at 30.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.