Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:11 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 21.5% in Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by...? — $24.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $449.
Leading outcome
December 31
22%
A 21.5% price implies roughly a 22-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −8.5 pts7D −6.0 pts
December 3121.5%
October 315.3%
Bid
20¢
Ask
23¢
Spread
3¢
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Range since October 03, 2026: 21.5% – 51.5% · Opened at 51.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by...?
Category
Geopolitics, Ukraine Map
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$24.2K
Volume (24h)
$449
Liquidity
$5.4K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31 — 21.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 21.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -8.5 pts; past week: -6.0 pts.

Since October 03, 2026, December 31 has traded between 21.5% and 51.5%. It opened at 51.5% and last traded at 21.5%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202632.0%
Oct 15, 202627.5%
Oct 16, 202627.5%
Oct 18, 202627.5%
Oct 19, 202632.0%
Oct 20, 202633.0%
Oct 24, 202621.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 21.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3122¢21.5%-8.5 pts$10.5K43.5%
October 315¢5.3%-0.7 pts$13.7K56.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 20¢ / ask 23¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$24.2K has been traded on this event in total, $449 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Terny, Donetsk Oblast, (49.097467° N, 37.965439° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (Story Map: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375; Web Map: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=9f04944a2fe84edab9da31750c2b15eb) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW Web Map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,822 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Light-FrontNo1,822$1.4K
Yellow-BotherNo1,258$987
Shocked-NewsletterYes585$126
Silly-CoinYes560$120
Known-UseYes498$107
Palatable-AvalancheYes300$64
Descriptive-Pug-LumbermanYes292$63
Outrageous-WarlordYes252$54
Essential-Boar-HarmonizeYes242$52
Buzzing-ProfessionYes213$46

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $500 at 68.6%BUY No — $238 at 92.2%SELL Yes — $192 at 33.9%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 03:56 PM ETYesSELL27.7%$96
Oct 24, 03:56 PM ETNoBUY73.0%$30
Oct 24, 03:56 PM ETNoBUY73.9%$22
Oct 24, 03:56 PM ETNoBUY73.0%$22
Oct 23, 08:02 PM ETNoSELL93.3%$9
Oct 23, 08:01 PM ETNoSELL93.3%$47
Oct 22, 06:28 AM ETNoSELL95.1%$8
Oct 22, 06:28 AM ETNoSELL95.7%$120
Oct 21, 08:02 PM ETYesSELL31.0%$19
Oct 21, 06:56 PM ETNoBUY97.8%$29

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 21.5%. Next is October 31 at 5.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-re-enter-terny-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by...??

$24.2K in total volume, with $449 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 21.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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