Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 11.0% in Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...? — $209.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
December 31
11%
A 11.0% price implies roughly a 11-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −5.5 pts7D −8.5 pts30D −28.5 pts
Bid
10¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since May 27, 2026: 15.5% – 56.5% · Opened at 56.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...?
Category
Ukraine Map, Politics, Geopolitics
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$209.8K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$1.4K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
December 31 — 11.0%
Resolution source
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 11.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -5.5 pts; past week: -8.5 pts; past month: -28.5 pts.

Since May 27, 2026, December 31 has traded between 15.5% and 56.5%. It opened at 56.5% and last traded at 17.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202619.5%
Oct 17, 202619.5%
Oct 18, 202619.5%
Oct 19, 202619.5%
Oct 20, 202617.0%
Oct 22, 202615.5%
Oct 23, 202617.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 11.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3111¢11.0%-5.5 pts$37.4K17.8%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 12¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$209.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Uspenivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.78301797308696° N, 36.386232040928824° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,125 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Light-FrontNo3,125$2.8K
Unkempt-Privacy-BrunchNo1,302$1.2K
Grimy-TurnstileYes562$62
Jolly-LeaderYes525$58
Belated-ParrotYes496$55
High-AlarmYes407$45
Buoyant-Wren-ProportionNo334$297
Belated-GlueYes303$33
Useless-MarkerYes300$33
Waterlogged-MisnomerNo292$260

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $168 at 16.0%BUY Yes — $60 at 18.0%BUY Yes — $54 at 21.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 21, 08:56 AM ETNoSELL79.0%$40
Oct 21, 08:56 AM ETNoSELL80.0%$47
Oct 21, 03:52 AM ETNoSELL83.0%$26
Oct 21, 03:21 AM ETYesBUY17.0%$12
Oct 21, 03:21 AM ETYesSELL16.0%$2
Oct 21, 03:21 AM ETYesSELL16.0%$168
Oct 20, 02:03 AM ETYesSELL17.0%$1
Oct 20, 02:03 AM ETYesSELL18.0%$1
Oct 20, 02:03 AM ETYesSELL18.8%$8
Oct 15, 10:24 AM ETNoSELL79.0%$16

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 11.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-re-enter-uspenivka-by-march-31?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...??

$209.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 11.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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