Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 89.0% in Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027? — $8.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $565.
Leading outcome
No
89%
A 89.0% price implies roughly a 89-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −4.5 pts7D −9.5 pts30D +4.5 pts
No89.0%
Yes11.0%
Bid
10¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since June 13, 2026: 71.5% – 94.5% · Opened at 80.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?
Category
Ukraine, Politics, European Union , international affairs
Scheduled end
December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$8.7K
Volume (24h)
$565
Liquidity
$16.0K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 89.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 89.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.5 pts; past week: -9.5 pts; past month: +4.5 pts.

Since June 13, 2026, No has traded between 71.5% and 94.5%. It opened at 80.0% and last traded at 85.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202681.5%
Oct 17, 202679.5%
Oct 18, 202679.5%
Oct 19, 202679.5%
Oct 20, 202685.0%
Oct 22, 202685.0%
Oct 23, 202685.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 89.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No89¢89.0%+4.5 pts$8.7K100.0%
Yes11¢11.0%-4.5 pts$8.7K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 12¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$8.7K has been traded on this event in total, $565 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine and the European Union formally sign an accession treaty by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying accession treaty will be a binding agreement that establishes the terms of Ukraine's potential future membership in the European Union, including agreements that provide for partial or limited membership or that contain exemptions, transition periods, or carve-outs on specific EU policies. Ukraine does not need to become a member of the European Union for this market to resolve to "Yes". Ratification of the agreement by EU member states, the Ukrainian parliament, or other legislative bodies is not required for this market to resolve "Yes." Preliminary agreements, association agreements, framework agreements, or membership or potential membership in the European Economic Area alone will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the European Commission, European Council, or Government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,368 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Villainous-CrookNo2,368$2.1K
Cultivated-DieselYes1,977$217
Dim-JokeYes1,338$147
Joint-WashbasinNo838$746
Present-LambkinNo355$316
0x6019048b…No333$297
Unknown-IntegerNo300$267
Wavy-CurveYes286$31
Evil-RowYes198$22
Belated-GlueYes100$11

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $300 at 88.8%BUY No — $152 at 86.5%BUY No — $100 at 81.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:52 PM ETYesBUY12.0%$1
Oct 24, 04:12 PM ETNoBUY88.8%$300
Oct 24, 09:53 AM ETYesSELL12.0%$1
Oct 24, 02:21 AM ETNoBUY87.0%$35
Oct 24, 02:21 AM ETNoBUY86.5%$152
Oct 21, 09:14 PM ETYesSELL12.0%$2
Oct 20, 07:18 PM ETNoSELL83.0%$17
Oct 20, 07:18 PM ETYesBUY15.0%$6
Oct 20, 06:14 PM ETYesBUY15.0%$3
Oct 20, 11:18 AM ETNoSELL81.0%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 89.0%. Next is Yes at 11.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-sign-an-eu-accession-treaty-by-december-31-2027-20260611204943691?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027??

$8.7K in total volume, with $565 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 89.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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