As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 89.0% in Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027? — $8.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 89.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.5 pts; past week: -9.5 pts; past month: +4.5 pts.
Since June 13, 2026, No has traded between 71.5% and 94.5%. It opened at 80.0% and last traded at 85.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 79.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 79.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 79.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 85.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 85.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 85.0% |
No is favored at 89.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 89¢ | 89.0% | +4.5 pts | $8.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 11¢ | 11.0% | -4.5 pts | $8.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 12¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$8.7K has been traded on this event in total, $565 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine and the European Union formally sign an accession treaty by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying accession treaty will be a binding agreement that establishes the terms of Ukraine's potential future membership in the European Union, including agreements that provide for partial or limited membership or that contain exemptions, transition periods, or carve-outs on specific EU policies. Ukraine does not need to become a member of the European Union for this market to resolve to "Yes". Ratification of the agreement by EU member states, the Ukrainian parliament, or other legislative bodies is not required for this market to resolve "Yes." Preliminary agreements, association agreements, framework agreements, or membership or potential membership in the European Economic Area alone will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the European Commission, European Council, or Government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,368 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villainous-Crook | No | 2,368 | $2.1K |
| Cultivated-Diesel | Yes | 1,977 | $217 |
| Dim-Joke | Yes | 1,338 | $147 |
| Joint-Washbasin | No | 838 | $746 |
| Present-Lambkin | No | 355 | $316 |
| 0x6019048b… | No | 333 | $297 |
| Unknown-Integer | No | 300 | $267 |
| Wavy-Curve | Yes | 286 | $31 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 198 | $22 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 100 | $11 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:12 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.8% | $300 |
| Oct 24, 09:53 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $35 |
| Oct 24, 02:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 86.5% | $152 |
| Oct 21, 09:14 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 07:18 PM ET | No | SELL | 83.0% | $17 |
| Oct 20, 07:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $6 |
| Oct 20, 06:14 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $3 |
| Oct 20, 11:18 AM ET | No | SELL | 81.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 89.0%. Next is Yes at 11.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-sign-an-eu-accession-treaty-by-december-31-2027-20260611204943691?via=bro
$8.7K in total volume, with $565 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 89.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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