As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 280M at 16.0% in Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30? — $38.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 280M, is priced at 16.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -9.5 pts; past week: -38.0 pts; past month: -64.5 pts.
Since September 22, 2026, 280M has traded between 16.0% and 89.0%. It opened at 70.5% and last traded at 16.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 52.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 56.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 30.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 42.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 27.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 16.0% |
280M is favored at 16.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 280M | 16¢ | 16.0% | -9.5 pts | $26.6K | 69.7% |
| 270M | 2¢ | 2.5% | -0.7 pts | $7.1K | 18.5% |
| 260M | 1¢ | 0.9% | +0.3 pts | $2.7K | 7.1% |
| 250M | 1¢ | 0.6% | +0.1 pts | $434 | 1.1% |
| 240M | 1¢ | 0.6% | +0.1 pts | $1.3K | 3.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 20¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 26¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$38.1K has been traded on this event in total, $786 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before October 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before October 30, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on October 30, 2026, by November 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.
Resolution source: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 930 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Same-Scalp | No | 930 | $781 |
| Exhausted-String | Yes | 369 | $59 |
| Teeming-Puppet | Yes | 299 | $48 |
| Unusual-Snug-Bongo | No | 290 | $244 |
| Witty-Birch | No | 239 | $201 |
| Adored-Colonisation | Yes | 210 | $34 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 201 | $32 |
| Untidy-Wren | No | 198 | $167 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 135 | $22 |
| Pointless-Center | Yes | 116 | $19 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:58 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 11:03 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 11:03 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 10:39 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 25.8% | $50 |
| Oct 24, 09:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 72.0% | $29 |
| Oct 24, 08:34 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 27.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 08:34 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 28.5% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 08:31 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.4% | $50 |
| Oct 24, 08:31 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:31 AM ET | No | BUY | 66.0% | $12 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 280M at 16.0%. Next is 270M at 2.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-us-crude-oil-reserves-fall-to-by-october-30?via=bro
$38.1K in total volume, with $786 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W.
280M, priced at 16.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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