As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 1.6% in Will US withdraw from NATO by...? — $6.37M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 1.6%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.3 pts; past week: +0.1 pts; past month: -0.3 pts.
Since November 05, 2025, December 31 has traded between 1.5% and 18.5%. It opened at 10.0% and last traded at 1.6%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 1.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 1.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 1.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 2.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 1.8% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 1.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 1.6% |
December 31 is favored at 1.6%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 2¢ | 1.6% | -0.3 pts | $1.35M | 21.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$6.37M has been traded on this event in total, $13.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 74,862 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odd-Okra | No | 74,862 | $73.7K |
| Potable-Gator | No | 52,615 | $51.8K |
| Safe-Jewelry | Yes | 22,433 | $348 |
| Abandoned-Clasp | Yes | 16,390 | $254 |
| 0x4e25605f… | No | 11,187 | $11.0K |
| Shocking-Pit | No | 11,177 | $11.0K |
| Far-Off-Shakedown | Yes | 10,068 | $156 |
| Bogus-Misrepresentation | Yes | 9,404 | $146 |
| Appropriate-Antennae-Layer | Yes | 8,648 | $134 |
| Repulsive-Duration | Yes | 8,284 | $128 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.4% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 08:42 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.4% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 04:39 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.5% | $72 |
| Oct 24, 03:05 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.3% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 03:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 08:05 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.5% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 07:54 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.5% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 07:53 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.5% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 03:26 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.5% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 1.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-us-withdraw-from-nato-before-2027?via=bro
$6.37M in total volume, with $13.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 1.6% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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