As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 21.0% in Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by ___? — $183.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 21.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -8.0 pts; past week: -14.5 pts; past month: -5.5 pts.
Since December 30, 2025, December 31, 2026 has traded between 9.0% and 90.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 29.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 41.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 39.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 33.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 31.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 29.0% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 21.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 21¢ | 21.0% | -8.0 pts | $102.4K | 55.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 14¢ (bid 14¢ / ask 28¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$183.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data. The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT. This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Resolution source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,579 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prudent-Weasel | Yes | 1,579 | $332 |
| Imperturbable-Genius | No | 1,344 | $1.1K |
| Itchy-Zipper | Yes | 1,092 | $229 |
| Costly-Sculpting | Yes | 944 | $198 |
| Dry-Integration | No | 844 | $667 |
| Well-Made-Recapitulation | No | 827 | $653 |
| Dizzy-Headache | No | 818 | $646 |
| Suburban-Documentary | Yes | 764 | $160 |
| Bustling-Precedent | Yes | 764 | $160 |
| Caring-Typhoon | No | 764 | $604 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 02:46 AM ET | No | BUY | 86.0% | $113 |
| Oct 23, 02:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 86.0% | $85 |
| Oct 17, 05:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 86.0% | $113 |
| Oct 17, 05:55 AM ET | No | BUY | 82.3% | $159 |
| Oct 13, 02:51 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 19.0% | $2 |
| Oct 13, 02:42 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 39.3% | $5 |
| Oct 05, 08:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $4 |
| Sep 23, 08:50 PM ET | No | BUY | 66.0% | $7 |
| Sep 22, 02:55 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.5% | $2 |
| Sep 22, 02:46 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 36.3% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 21.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-usdc-hit-50-of-usdt-market-cap-by-december-31?via=bro
$183.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel.
December 31, 2026, priced at 21.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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