As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↑165 at 31.5% in Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026? — $63.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, ↑165, is priced at 31.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.5 pts; past week: +5.5 pts; past month: +5.0 pts.
Since February 06, 2026, ↑165 has traded between 22.5% and 79.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 32.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 26.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 26.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 26.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 29.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 29.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 29.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 32.0% |
↑165 is favored at 31.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑165 | 32¢ | 31.5% | +2.5 pts | $11.0K | 17.5% |
| ↓150 | 12¢ | 12.0% | -9.5 pts | $8.7K | 13.8% |
| ↓140 | 10¢ | 9.5% | -1.0 pts | $2.7K | 4.3% |
| ↑170 | 9¢ | 9.0% | — | $7.0K | 11.1% |
| ↓110 | 9¢ | 8.8% | -18.4 pts | $1.1K | 1.8% |
| ↑175 | 8¢ | 8.0% | — | $3.4K | 5.4% |
| ↑180 | 5¢ | 5.1% | +0.1 pts | $1.1K | 1.7% |
| ↑190 | 3¢ | 3.5% | +0.2 pts | $182 | 0.3% |
| ↑200 | 3¢ | 2.5% | +0.1 pts | $797 | 1.3% |
| ↓130 | 2¢ | 1.7% | +0.1 pts | $1.5K | 2.4% |
| ↓120 | 0¢ | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $17.3K | 27.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 19¢ (bid 22¢ / ask 41¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$63.1K has been traded on this event in total, $617 of it in the last 24 hours, across 11 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 30, 2026, 07:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any USD/JPY hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday. This market will resolve as soon as any finalized USD/JPY hourly candle high price is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date. This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “H” figure located at the top of the USD/JPY Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy-chart).
Resolution source: https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy-chart
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 871 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exalted-Achievement | No | 871 | $597 |
| 0xe617861a… | Yes | 738 | $232 |
| Haunting-Circuit | No | 736 | $504 |
| Fickle-Cappuccino | Yes | 468 | $148 |
| Substantial-Compost | No | 437 | $300 |
| Bare-Initialise | Yes | 410 | $129 |
| Optimistic-Amenity | No | 400 | $274 |
| Hearty-Salary | Yes | 354 | $112 |
| Tough-Water-Enforcement | No | 263 | $180 |
| Demanding-Hop | Yes | 249 | $79 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 09:13 PM ET | No | SELL | 78.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 09:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 17.2% | $106 |
| Oct 23, 11:29 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 11:59 AM ET | No | SELL | 77.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 06:43 AM ET | No | SELL | 76.7% | $4 |
| Oct 20, 07:22 PM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 07:21 PM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 07:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $2 |
| Oct 19, 12:19 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 21.0% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 08:05 AM ET | No | SELL | 99.9% | $251 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↑165 at 31.5%. Next is ↓150 at 12.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-usdjpy-hit-in-2026-479?via=bro
$63.1K in total volume, with $617 traded in the last 24 hours across 11 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 30, 2026, 07:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy-chart.
↑165, priced at 31.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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