As of October 24, 2026, 06:34 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 80.0% in Will Variational launch a token by ___ ? — $469.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 80.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.6 pts; past week: -10.1 pts; past month: -10.0 pts.
Since November 19, 2025, December 31, 2026 has traded between 44.5% and 96.2%. It opened at 67.5% and last traded at 80.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 90.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 83.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 77.7% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 79.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 80.0% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 80.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 80¢ | 80.0% | +0.6 pts | $396.7K | 84.4% |
| November 30, 2026 | 25¢ | 25.0% | -4.5 pts | $8.9K | 1.9% |
| October 31, 2026 | 1¢ | 1.4% | -0.3 pts | $4.0K | 0.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 79¢ / ask 81¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$469.8K has been traded on this event in total, $743 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Variational officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Variational (https://x.com/variational_io), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution source: https://x.com/variational_io
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 26,543 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Content-Transport-Cascade | Yes | 26,543 | $21.2K |
| Rowdy-Innocent | No | 10,385 | $2.1K |
| Infantile-Crime | Yes | 5,485 | $4.4K |
| Impish-Revenge | No | 4,959 | $994 |
| Pricey-Tofu | No | 4,938 | $990 |
| Quarrelsome-Antling | No | 3,178 | $637 |
| dima23000 | No | 1,696 | $340 |
| Snappy-Lining | No | 1,297 | $260 |
| Adolescent-Guilty | No | 1,202 | $241 |
| Bulky-Utility | No | 1,177 | $236 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:49 AM ET | No | BUY | 73.0% | $475 |
| Oct 24, 03:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 03:49 AM ET | No | BUY | 77.0% | $15 |
| Oct 23, 08:00 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 29.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 08:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 08:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 03:44 AM ET | No | BUY | 19.8% | $32 |
| Oct 23, 01:46 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.8% | $120 |
| Oct 23, 01:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.8% | $77 |
| Oct 23, 01:01 AM ET | No | BUY | 69.0% | $69 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 80.0%. Next is November 30, 2026 at 25.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-variational-launch-a-token-in-2025?via=bro
$469.8K in total volume, with $743 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://x.com/variational_io.
December 31, 2026, priced at 80.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.