As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 97.9% in Will Venezuela become 51st state? — $398.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 97.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.1 pts; past month: -0.1 pts.
Since January 04, 2026, No has traded between 94.4% and 98.0%. It opened at 96.4% and last traded at 97.9%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 97.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.9% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 97.9% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.9% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.9% |
No is favored at 97.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 97.9% | — | $398.4K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 2.1% | — | $398.4K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$398.4K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 19,637 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8931aa50… | No | 19,637 | $19.2K |
| Growing-Scholar | Yes | 18,994 | $408 |
| Mediocre-Paradise | No | 2,178 | $2.1K |
| Unfolded-Antiquity | Yes | 1,085 | $23 |
| Tart-Gelding | Yes | 1,021 | $22 |
| Sandy-Visor | Yes | 1,000 | $22 |
| Affectionate-Tributary | No | 1,000 | $978 |
| Acrobatic-Economics | No | 977 | $956 |
| Medium-Session | No | 910 | $891 |
| Portly-Fishing | Yes | 900 | $19 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 04:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.3% | $199 |
| Oct 18, 04:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $5 |
| Oct 18, 04:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $78 |
| Oct 18, 03:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $234 |
| Oct 18, 02:55 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.9% | $5 |
| Oct 18, 02:55 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.1% | $1 |
| Oct 17, 06:30 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.6% | $15 |
| Oct 15, 11:57 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.7% | $5 |
| Oct 14, 12:19 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.8% | $1 |
| Oct 10, 07:34 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.9% | $39 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 97.9%. Next is Yes at 2.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-venezuela-become-51st-state?via=bro
$398.4K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 97.9% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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