As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1.2m at 56.0% in Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026? — $188.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 1.2m, is priced at 56.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -2.5 pts; past month: -2.0 pts.
Since January 07, 2026, 1.2m has traded between 12.0% and 92.0%. It opened at 53.0% and last traded at 56.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 59.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 58.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 55.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 56.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 57.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 55.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 56.0% |
1.2m is favored at 56.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2m | 56¢ | 56.0% | — | $11.4K | 6.0% |
| 1.3m | 14¢ | 14.0% | — | $8.2K | 4.4% |
| 1.5m | 7¢ | 7.0% | -0.1 pts | $10.8K | 5.8% |
| 1.4m | 7¢ | 6.7% | -0.4 pts | $20.3K | 10.8% |
| 1.7m | 2¢ | 2.1% | -0.1 pts | $61.1K | 32.5% |
| 2m | 1¢ | 1.5% | -0.1 pts | $16.5K | 8.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 32¢ (bid 40¢ / ask 72¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$188.0K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month. The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row. This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Resolution source: https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,460 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Half-Magazine | No | 1,460 | $642 |
| Sparse-Cloak | Yes | 1,310 | $734 |
| Giving-Dwell | Yes | 282 | $158 |
| Exhausted-String | No | 229 | $101 |
| Unsung-Housework | No | 198 | $87 |
| Tiny-Club | Yes | 157 | $88 |
| Untried-Rainy | No | 143 | $63 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 116 | $65 |
| Belgaron | No | 110 | $48 |
| Honorable-Statistics | No | 105 | $46 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 08:09 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $15 |
| Oct 13, 08:09 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.3% | $12 |
| Oct 13, 08:09 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.5% | $11 |
| Oct 09, 11:20 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.7% | $19 |
| Oct 09, 10:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 89.3% | $17 |
| Oct 08, 05:21 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $4 |
| Oct 08, 05:20 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.9% | $4 |
| Oct 05, 11:50 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.8% | $1 |
| Oct 01, 03:40 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $25 |
| Sep 29, 05:03 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.2% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1.2m at 56.0%. Next is 1.3m at 14.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-venezuelan-crude-oil-production-reach-barrels-per-day-in-2026?via=bro
$188.0K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html.
1.2m, priced at 56.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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