As of October 24, 2026, 07:49 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 75.5% in Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...? — $146.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 75.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: +6.5 pts.
Since April 23, 2026, December 31 has traded between 19.5% and 77.0%. It opened at 59.5% and last traded at 77.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 76.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 77.0% |
December 31 is favored at 75.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 76¢ | 75.5% | — | $113.8K | 77.5% |
| October 31 | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $349 | 0.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 74¢ / ask 77¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$146.9K has been traded on this event in total, $44 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sanae Takaichi meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Takaichi and Jinping are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,999 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fearless-Aggression | Yes | 4,999 | $3.8K |
| Insignificant-Hatred | No | 3,995 | $979 |
| Plush-Origin | No | 3,933 | $964 |
| Sharp-Muscat | Yes | 3,655 | $2.8K |
| Aged-Temporariness | Yes | 3,420 | $2.6K |
| Stormy-Teammate | Yes | 2,230 | $1.7K |
| Rapid-Jicama | Yes | 2,126 | $1.6K |
| Ultimate-Brushfire | Yes | 1,481 | $1.1K |
| Esteemed-Contract | Yes | 1,242 | $937 |
| 0xb64dc93f… | No | 1,194 | $292 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 26.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 11:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 26.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 01:28 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 74.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 09:55 AM ET | No | BUY | 25.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 09:55 AM ET | No | BUY | 25.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 09:55 AM ET | No | BUY | 25.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 09:55 AM ET | No | BUY | 25.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 05:12 AM ET | No | BUY | 24.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 05:12 AM ET | No | BUY | 24.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 05:12 AM ET | No | BUY | 24.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 75.5%. Next is October 31 at 1.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-xi-meet-with-takaichi-by?via=bro
$146.9K in total volume, with $44 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 75.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.