As of October 24, 2026, 08:16 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 87.5% in X banned in any European country by December 31? — $13.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 87.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +2.0 pts; past month: +1.5 pts.
Since March 31, 2026, No has traded between 49.0% and 89.5%. It opened at 72.5% and last traded at 87.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 89.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 88.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 87.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 87.5% |
No is favored at 87.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 88¢ | 87.5% | — | $13.9K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 12¢ | 12.5% | — | $13.9K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 14¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$13.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City. A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,465 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| LlamaLoco0000 | Yes | 2,465 | $308 |
| Knobby-Sticker | No | 911 | $797 |
| Sociable-Rooster | Yes | 774 | $97 |
| Snappy-Dynamics | No | 582 | $509 |
| Tidy-Instruction | No | 467 | $409 |
| Pointed-Rancher | No | 371 | $325 |
| Devoted-Route | Yes | 267 | $33 |
| Weird-Freedom | No | 266 | $232 |
| Insistent-Monkey | No | 246 | $216 |
| Insubstantial-Empire | No | 241 | $211 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 09:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 03:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 04:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $2 |
| Oct 16, 09:17 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $4 |
| Oct 16, 02:22 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $4 |
| Oct 13, 11:51 AM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $1 |
| Oct 12, 01:15 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.1% | $30 |
| Oct 05, 01:53 PM ET | No | BUY | 82.0% | $25 |
| Oct 05, 01:53 PM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $67 |
| Oct 05, 01:41 PM ET | No | SELL | 80.1% | $56 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 87.5%. Next is Yes at 12.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/x-banned-in-any-european-country-by-december-31?via=bro
$13.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 87.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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