As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Down at 55.0% in Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 26? — $596 traded so far.
The leading outcome, Down, is priced at 55.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -7.0 pts.
Since October 23, 2026, Down has traded between 52.5% and 54.5%. It opened at 54.5% and last traded at 52.5%.
Down is favored at 55.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Down | 55¢ | 55.0% | +7.0 pts | $596 | 100.0% |
| Up | 45¢ | 45.0% | -7.0 pts | $596 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 12¢ (bid 39¢ / ask 51¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$596 has been traded on this event in total, $587 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 05:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on October 26, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 269 shares of Down.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unpleasant-Distinction | Down | 269 | $148 |
| Winged-Researcher | Down | 228 | $125 |
| Agitated-Mobster | Up | 207 | $93 |
| Splendid-Polo-Modeling | Up | 100 | $45 |
| Jealous-Vitro | Up | 100 | $45 |
| Austere-Health-Ghost | Up | 83 | $38 |
| These-Latency-Perspective | Up | 20 | $9 |
| Empty-Annual | Down | 10 | $6 |
| Stale-Cashew | Down | 4 | $2 |
| Reasonable-Bandanna | Up | 4 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:22 PM ET | Up | BUY | 45.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 03:22 PM ET | Up | SELL | 35.6% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 03:14 PM ET | Up | BUY | 53.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 11:26 AM ET | Up | BUY | 37.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 11:26 AM ET | Up | BUY | 35.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 11:23 AM ET | Up | BUY | 38.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 11:23 AM ET | Up | BUY | 37.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 11:21 AM ET | Up | BUY | 35.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 11:20 AM ET | Down | BUY | 59.5% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 10:17 AM ET | Up | BUY | 43.0% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Down at 55.0%. Next is Up at 45.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/xauusd-up-or-down-on-october-26-2026?via=bro
$596 in total volume, with $587 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 05:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD.
Down, priced at 55.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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