As of October 24, 2026, 08:06 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 7.0% in Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by...? — $29.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 7.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past week: +2.0 pts.
Since October 06, 2026, November 30 has traded between 4.5% and 16.5%. It opened at 16.5% and last traded at 6.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 5.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 4.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 5.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 6.5% |
November 30 is favored at 7.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 7¢ | 7.0% | +1.5 pts | $13.6K | 47.0% |
| October 31 | 2¢ | 1.8% | +0.1 pts | $15.4K | 53.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 8¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$29.0K has been traded on this event in total, $50 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yemeni forces enter any part of Sanaa, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Yemeni forces" refers to the armed forces of the internationally recognized Government of Yemen under the Presidential Leadership Council, and any armed group operating under or on behalf of it. This includes the Yemeni Armed Forces, the Giants Brigades, the Nation's Shield Forces (also rendered Homeland Shield Forces), the National Resistance Forces, and any other force confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be operating under or on behalf of the internationally recognized Government of Yemen. The armed forces of any other state, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, will not qualify on their own; the participation of foreign state forces alongside qualifying Yemeni forces will not disqualify an entry that otherwise meets the terms of this market. "Sanaa" refers to the city of Sanaa, Yemen, coextensive with the municipality of Amanat Al Asimah, as defined by its official administrative boundaries. Sanaa Governorate is a separate administrative entity, and entry into any part of Sanaa Governorate will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Yemeni forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Sanaa, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 440 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Glum-Kitty | No | 440 | $409 |
| bakayo33 - 9934 | No | 417 | $387 |
| Admirable-Child | No | 400 | $372 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 380 | $27 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 192 | $13 |
| Required-Horn | Yes | 123 | $9 |
| Hideous-Racer | No | 104 | $96 |
| Knotty-Exception | Yes | 100 | $7 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 88 | $6 |
| Best-Dot | Yes | 87 | $6 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 12:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 04:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.6% | $10 |
| Oct 21, 03:40 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $2 |
| Oct 19, 02:29 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $18 |
| Oct 17, 01:35 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $3 |
| Oct 17, 06:39 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.3% | $11 |
| Oct 17, 02:44 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.7% | $0 |
| Oct 17, 02:42 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $3 |
| Oct 16, 07:47 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.8% | $8 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 7.0%. Next is October 31 at 1.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/yemeni-forces-enter-sanaa-byptptpt?via=bro
$29.0K in total volume, with $50 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
November 30, priced at 7.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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