As of October 24, 2026, 08:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 95.5% in Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited? — $27.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 95.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.1 pts; past month: -0.5 pts.
Since June 05, 2026, No has traded between 75.5% and 95.7%. It opened at 75.5% and last traded at 95.6%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.6% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.6% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.6% |
No is favored at 95.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 95.5% | — | $27.9K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $27.9K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$27.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end June 04, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market asks whether Zcash's Orchard pool vulnerability publicized June 4 is confirmed to have been exploited on Zcash mainnet before it was fixed. This market resolves "Yes" if Shielded Labs, the Zcash Foundation, or the Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL) explicitly confirms, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms, that the June 4 Zcash Orchard pool vulnerability was exploited on mainnet before the fix was activated by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Explicit confirmation of any of the following will qualify: - The Orchard pool bug was exploited on Zcash mainnet - Any extra, unauthorized, invalid, or unbacked Zcash was created in the Orchard pool through this vulnerability - A Zcash network upgrade, migration, audit, turnstile-accounting process (including the proposed new shielded pool with enforced turnstile accounting on exiting Orchard coins), or official investigation reveals excess or invalid Zcash in the Orchard pool that the source attributes to this specific vulnerability. New or different exploits targeting the Orchard pool after the original vulnerability was fixed are explicitly disqualified and will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 9,877 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watery-Anorak | No | 9,877 | $9.4K |
| Annual-Watercress-Indicator | Yes | 7,523 | $335 |
| Strict-Quiet | Yes | 3,124 | $139 |
| Motherly-Grief | No | 1,670 | $1.6K |
| Nutty-Impostor | No | 1,574 | $1.5K |
| Shimmering-Reindeer | No | 820 | $784 |
| Watery-Distortion | Yes | 800 | $36 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Hemisphere | Yes | 731 | $33 |
| Subdued-Revenant | Yes | 524 | $23 |
| Separate-Cattle | Yes | 517 | $23 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 01:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.9% | $0 |
| Oct 12, 04:14 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.3% | $9 |
| Oct 12, 04:09 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.3% | $1 |
| Sep 27, 10:40 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.3% | $19 |
| Sep 27, 10:35 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.3% | $193 |
| Sep 27, 10:34 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.2% | $577 |
| Sep 25, 02:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.9% | $1 |
| Sep 17, 07:54 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $200 |
| Sep 03, 07:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.7% | $280 |
| Aug 27, 06:23 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.6% | $22 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 95.5%. Next is Yes at 4.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/zcashs-orchard-pool-confirmed-exploited-20260605210804589?via=bro
$27.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 04, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 95.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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