As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 87.5% in Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? — $229.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 87.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +1.0 pts; past month: -2.0 pts.
Since January 29, 2026, No has traded between 73.0% and 92.5%. It opened at 80.5% and last traded at 87.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 87.0% |
No is favored at 87.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 88¢ | 87.5% | +0.5 pts | $229.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 12¢ | 12.5% | -0.5 pts | $229.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 12¢ / ask 13¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$229.2K has been traded on this event in total, $15 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chinese General Zhang Youxia is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,628 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silent-Obsidian | No | 5,628 | $4.9K |
| Ideal-Arch | No | 5,552 | $4.9K |
| Any-Hallway | Yes | 5,244 | $655 |
| Glorious-Memory | No | 5,000 | $4.4K |
| Sharp-Muscat | Yes | 3,242 | $405 |
| Hefty-Kickoff-Crossstitch | No | 2,926 | $2.6K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 2,483 | $2.2K |
| Common-Amendment | Yes | 2,027 | $253 |
| Whopping-Viscose-Plume | Yes | 1,975 | $247 |
| Vain-Burn | Yes | 1,900 | $238 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:01 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 03:49 AM ET | No | SELL | 86.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 08:47 PM ET | No | SELL | 87.0% | $17 |
| Oct 22, 08:47 PM ET | No | SELL | 87.0% | $17 |
| Oct 22, 08:45 PM ET | No | SELL | 87.0% | $17 |
| Oct 22, 08:39 PM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $44 |
| Oct 22, 08:39 PM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $18 |
| Oct 22, 08:39 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 08:39 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.4% | $40 |
| Oct 22, 08:39 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 87.5%. Next is Yes at 12.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/zhang-youxia-sentenced-to-prison-before-2027?via=bro
$229.2K in total volume, with $15 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 87.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.