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Midterms 2026 · Live odds

2026 midterms hub

What prediction markets say about the 2026 US midterm elections — live odds on control of Congress and the Senate races that will decide it. Prices update as real money moves.

Sample edition: odds below are live market prices captured October 2, 2026. The full hub refreshes automatically every morning.

Control of Congress

Which party wins the Senate?
Democrats 62.5%Republicans 36.5%
Which party wins the House?
Democrats 92.5%Republicans 7.5%

Senate races to watch

Ohio Senate: who wins?
Democrats 58.5%Republicans 41.5%
Texas Senate: who wins?
Democrats 60.5%Republicans 38.5%
South Carolina Senate: who wins?
Democrats 11.5%Republicans 88.5%

How to read these odds

A price of 62¢ on Democrats means the market believes there's a 62% chance Democrats take the Senate. Buy Yes at 62¢ and you risk 62¢ to win 38¢ if you're right. Prices move with news, polls, and big bets — which is exactly what our Whale Watch tracks every day.

New to prediction markets? Start with what is Polymarket, then trading basics before risking a dollar.

⚠️ Not financial advice: election odds swing hard on single polls and headlines. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade the midterms

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