As of October 24, 2026, 09:08 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 97.4% in Another Codex outage in 2026? — $1.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 97.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.4 pts; past week: +22.4 pts.
Since October 07, 2026, Yes has traded between 52.0% and 96.9%. It opened at 75.5% and last traded at 96.9%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 72.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 52.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 52.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.9% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.9% |
Yes is favored at 97.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 97¢ | 97.4% | +0.4 pts | $1.3K | 100.0% |
| No | 3¢ | 2.6% | -0.4 pts | $1.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 95¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's Codex experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Codex will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on the specified day if the OpenAI Status Page for Codex (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. Only incidents listing Codex under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'ChatGPT,' 'FedRAMP,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not Codex, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The 'Codex in ChatGPT Desktop' component, listed under ChatGPT, is not part of Codex. This market will remain open until the December 31, 2026 status box is finalized and all incidents that began on that date have been resolved. Revisions that change an incident's impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published before the December 31, 2026 status box is finalized or before all incidents that began on that date have been resolved. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://status.openai.com/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 730 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dazzling-Metal | Yes | 730 | $711 |
| Tall-Impudence | No | 200 | $5 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 186 | $5 |
| Major-Crystallography-Molecule | No | 133 | $4 |
| Required-Horn | No | 97 | $3 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | No | 95 | $3 |
| Hideous-Racer | Yes | 68 | $66 |
| Original-Anything-Petition | No | 60 | $2 |
| Good-Gram-Prostacyclin | No | 50 | $1 |
| Flimsy-Hydrolysis | Yes | 40 | $39 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 08:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.0% | $20 |
| Oct 21, 07:35 PM ET | No | BUY | 6.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 07:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.1% | $641 |
| Oct 21, 07:04 PM ET | No | BUY | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 12, 01:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 27.0% | $10 |
| Oct 09, 08:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 82.0% | $10 |
| Oct 09, 04:04 PM ET | No | BUY | 21.0% | $1 |
| Oct 08, 07:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 21.0% | $2 |
| Oct 08, 12:11 PM ET | No | SELL | 6.5% | $1 |
| Oct 07, 10:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 77.0% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 97.4%. Next is No at 2.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/another-codex-outage-in-2026?via=bro
$1.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://status.openai.com/.
Yes, priced at 97.4% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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