As of October 24, 2026, 08:59 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 76.5% in Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by...? — $2.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 76.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.5 pts; past week: +1.5 pts.
Since October 08, 2026, November 30 has traded between 68.5% and 76.5%. It opened at 68.5% and last traded at 76.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 73.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 76.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 74.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 75.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 73.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 76.5% |
November 30 is favored at 76.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 76¢ | 76.5% | +2.5 pts | $1.1K | 44.5% |
| October 31 | 50¢ | 50.5% | +14.0 pts | $1.4K | 55.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 74¢ / ask 79¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.5K has been traded on this event in total, $255 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution. This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved. The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
Resolution source: https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 150 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green-Recruit | Yes | 150 | $115 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 105 | $25 |
| Awesome-Checkbook-Hose | No | 60 | $14 |
| Bumpy-Conscience | Yes | 39 | $30 |
| Dense-Whip | No | 27 | $6 |
| Embarrassed-Hill-Fold | Yes | 20 | $15 |
| Soulful-Remains-Chorus | Yes | 20 | $15 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 20 | $5 |
| Apt-Antecedent | No | 15 | $3 |
| Sandy-Attention | No | 5 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:53 PM ET | No | BUY | 46.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 02:33 PM ET | No | BUY | 59.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 08:55 AM ET | No | BUY | 56.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 07:34 AM ET | No | SELL | 49.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 07:24 AM ET | No | SELL | 27.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:10 AM ET | No | BUY | 54.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 07:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 07:04 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 42.0% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 06:31 AM ET | No | BUY | 53.0% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 05:45 AM ET | No | BUY | 22.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 76.5%. Next is October 31 at 50.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/another-frontier-math-problem-solved-byptptpt-20261008?via=bro
$2.5K in total volume, with $255 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
November 30, priced at 76.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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