As of October 24, 2026, 09:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Anthropic at 76.0% in Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap? — $334 traded so far.
The leading outcome, Anthropic, is priced at 76.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +7.5 pts; past month: +7.5 pts.
Since August 19, 2026, Anthropic has traded between 67.5% and 82.0%. It opened at 82.0% and last traded at 76.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 68.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 68.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 68.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 68.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 76.0% |
Anthropic is favored at 76.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 76¢ | 76.0% | +0.5 pts | $334 | 100.0% |
| OpenAI | 24¢ | 24.0% | -0.5 pts | $334 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 73¢ / ask 79¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$334 has been traded on this event in total, $5 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day. This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe. This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. - Both Anthropic and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal. - Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 94 shares of OpenAI.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unsung-Drink | OpenAI | 94 | $22 |
| Required-Horn | Anthropic | 40 | $30 |
| Light-Constraint-Pita | Anthropic | 29 | $22 |
| Vague-Playwright | Anthropic | 29 | $22 |
| Belated-Glue | OpenAI | 27 | $6 |
| Illustrious-Drum | Anthropic | 25 | $19 |
| 0x06071232… | OpenAI | 20 | $5 |
| Stupendous-Alpenhorn-Nick | Anthropic | 19 | $14 |
| Irritating-Venti | OpenAI | 19 | $4 |
| Oddball-Poison | Anthropic | 10 | $8 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:49 AM ET | Anthropic | SELL | 73.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 02:16 AM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 29.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 02:15 AM ET | Anthropic | BUY | 70.0% | $14 |
| Oct 22, 01:33 AM ET | Anthropic | BUY | 69.0% | $20 |
| Oct 21, 12:49 PM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 33.0% | $7 |
| Oct 07, 08:58 AM ET | Anthropic | BUY | 69.0% | $20 |
| Sep 22, 07:51 AM ET | OpenAI | SELL | 31.0% | $0 |
| Sep 22, 07:51 AM ET | OpenAI | SELL | 31.0% | $0 |
| Sep 21, 03:31 AM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 32.0% | $7 |
| Sep 21, 03:31 AM ET | Anthropic | SELL | 68.0% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 76.0%. Next is OpenAI at 24.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-or-openai-higher-ipo-closing-market-cap?via=bro
$334 in total volume, with $5 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
Anthropic, priced at 76.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.