As of October 24, 2026, 08:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 18.0% in Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...? — $3.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 18.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -6.5 pts; past week: -7.0 pts.
Since October 12, 2026, October 31 has traded between 18.0% and 51.5%. It opened at 28.5% and last traded at 18.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 22.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 18.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 26.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 35.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 25.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 18.0% |
October 31 is favored at 18.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 18¢ | 18.0% | -6.5 pts | $3.0K | 82.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 14¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 25¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.6K has been traded on this event in total, $76 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Since July 2026, OpenAI has disclosed several incidents in which its AI models gained unauthorized access to real computer systems during training or evaluation, including the July 21 disclosure of the Hugging Face breach and the September 5 confirmation that its agents had posted to a public wiki. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic publicly discloses an incident in which one of its AI models or agents gained unauthorized access to, or took unauthorized actions on, computer systems or internet-connected resources outside its sandbox, between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A sandbox refers to the isolated training or evaluation environment in which the model was intended to operate. Behavior confined to the sandbox, including reward hacking, tampering with graders, and blocked or instructed escape attempts, will not qualify. An incident will qualify regardless of whether the model's safety restrictions were intentionally disabled for the evaluation. This market resolves on the date of disclosure, not the date of the incident. The disclosure must concern an incident Anthropic had not previously disclosed. Updates, confirmations, or further detail about incidents disclosed before this market's creation will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 221 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 221 | $40 |
| Playful-Chop-Havoc | No | 114 | $94 |
| Sour-Pole-Sea | No | 74 | $61 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 62 | $11 |
| Capital-Endoderm | No | 62 | $51 |
| Adored-Turning | No | 45 | $37 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 40 | $7 |
| Infatuated-Nun | No | 40 | $33 |
| Acidic-Prairie | No | 26 | $22 |
| Charming-Kidney-Imagination | Yes | 20 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:30 AM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 03:26 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 25.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 03:21 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 28.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 09:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 09:20 PM ET | No | SELL | 74.0% | $15 |
| Oct 23, 03:38 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 28.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 03:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 28.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 09:23 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.5% | $9 |
| Oct 22, 07:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $17 |
| Oct 22, 07:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $18 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 18.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-reports-another-ai-sandbox-escape-byptptpt-20261012?via=bro
$3.6K in total volume, with $76 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
October 31, priced at 18.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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