Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 18.0% in Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...? — $3.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $76.
Leading outcome
October 31
18%
A 18.0% price implies roughly a 18-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −6.5 pts7D −7.0 pts
Bid
11¢
Ask
25¢
Spread
14¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 12, 2026: 18.0% – 51.5% · Opened at 28.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?
Category
AI, Tech, Claude, AI Safety, Anthropic, Dario Amodei, AI Regulation
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$3.6K
Volume (24h)
$76
Liquidity
$109
Markets
1
Leading outcome
October 31 — 18.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 18.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -6.5 pts; past week: -7.0 pts.

Since October 12, 2026, October 31 has traded between 18.0% and 51.5%. It opened at 28.5% and last traded at 18.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202622.0%
Oct 16, 202618.5%
Oct 18, 202626.5%
Oct 19, 202651.5%
Oct 20, 202635.5%
Oct 23, 202625.0%
Oct 24, 202618.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

October 31 is favored at 18.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
October 3118¢18.0%-6.5 pts$3.0K82.3%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 14¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 25¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$3.6K has been traded on this event in total, $76 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Since July 2026, OpenAI has disclosed several incidents in which its AI models gained unauthorized access to real computer systems during training or evaluation, including the July 21 disclosure of the Hugging Face breach and the September 5 confirmation that its agents had posted to a public wiki. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic publicly discloses an incident in which one of its AI models or agents gained unauthorized access to, or took unauthorized actions on, computer systems or internet-connected resources outside its sandbox, between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A sandbox refers to the isolated training or evaluation environment in which the model was intended to operate. Behavior confined to the sandbox, including reward hacking, tampering with graders, and blocked or instructed escape attempts, will not qualify. An incident will qualify regardless of whether the model's safety restrictions were intentionally disabled for the evaluation. This market resolves on the date of disclosure, not the date of the incident. The disclosure must concern an incident Anthropic had not previously disclosed. Updates, confirmations, or further detail about incidents disclosed before this market's creation will not qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 221 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueYes221$40
Playful-Chop-HavocNo114$94
Sour-Pole-SeaNo74$61
Gleaming-HandlebarYes62$11
Capital-EndodermNo62$51
Adored-TurningNo45$37
Evil-RowYes40$7
Infatuated-NunNo40$33
Acidic-PrairieNo26$22
Charming-Kidney-ImaginationYes20$4

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $54 at 67.2%BUY No — $40 at 64.0%BUY No — $18 at 89.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 03:30 AM ETNoBUY75.0%$4
Oct 24, 03:26 AM ETYesSELL25.0%$3
Oct 24, 03:21 AM ETYesBUY28.0%$6
Oct 23, 09:20 PM ETYesBUY27.0%$5
Oct 23, 09:20 PM ETNoSELL74.0%$15
Oct 23, 03:38 PM ETYesBUY28.0%$2
Oct 23, 03:37 PM ETYesBUY28.0%$2
Oct 23, 09:23 AM ETYesBUY22.5%$9
Oct 22, 07:27 PM ETNoBUY87.0%$17
Oct 22, 07:27 PM ETNoBUY89.0%$18

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 18.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-reports-another-ai-sandbox-escape-byptptpt-20261012?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...??

$3.6K in total volume, with $76 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

October 31, priced at 18.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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