As of October 24, 2026, 08:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 47.5% in AWS service disrupted by...? — $16.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 47.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +12.5 pts; past week: +7.0 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, November 30 has traded between 29.5% and 77.5%. It opened at 30.0% and last traded at 47.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 32.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 52.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 46.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 49.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 37.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 47.5% |
November 30 is favored at 47.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 48¢ | 47.5% | +12.5 pts | $4.5K | 27.8% |
| October 31 | 20¢ | 20.5% | -4.5 pts | $1.3K | 7.9% |
| September 30 | 14¢ | 14.0% | — | $262 | 1.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 46¢ / ask 49¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$16.2K has been traded on this event in total, $60 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count. Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.” This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 202 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | No | 202 | $106 |
| Attentive-Crewman | Yes | 90 | $43 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 45 | $24 |
| Curly-Pain | Yes | 39 | $18 |
| Corny-Teriyaki | Yes | 36 | $17 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 28 | $13 |
| Stimulating-Confirmation-Envy | No | 20 | $11 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 20 | $10 |
| Delectable-Waistband-Star | Yes | 20 | $10 |
| Scary-Holder | Yes | 20 | $10 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:22 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 41.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 02:01 AM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $30 |
| Oct 23, 10:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 53.0% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 09:34 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 36.0% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 10:27 AM ET | No | SELL | 50.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 09:21 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 53.0% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 08:20 AM ET | No | BUY | 49.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 06:51 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 47.0% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 06:51 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 40.0% | $17 |
| Oct 22, 09:38 PM ET | No | BUY | 53.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 47.5%. Next is October 31 at 20.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/aws-service-disrupted-by-june-30?via=bro
$16.2K in total volume, with $60 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
November 30, priced at 47.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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