Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

AWS service disrupted by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 47.5% in AWS service disrupted by...? — $16.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $60.
Leading outcome
November 30
48%
A 47.5% price implies roughly a 48-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +12.5 pts7D +7.0 pts
November 3047.5%
October 3120.5%
Bid
46¢
Ask
49¢
Spread
3¢
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Range since September 30, 2026: 29.5% – 77.5% · Opened at 30.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
AWS service disrupted by...?
Category
amazon, Tech, AWS, outage, Big Tech, Recurring
Scheduled end
September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$16.2K
Volume (24h)
$60
Liquidity
$312
Markets
3
Leading outcome
November 30 — 47.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 47.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +12.5 pts; past week: +7.0 pts.

Since September 30, 2026, November 30 has traded between 29.5% and 77.5%. It opened at 30.0% and last traded at 47.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202632.5%
Oct 18, 202652.0%
Oct 19, 202646.0%
Oct 20, 202649.5%
Oct 23, 202637.0%
Oct 24, 202647.5%
Oct 24, 202647.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

November 30 is favored at 47.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
November 3048¢47.5%+12.5 pts$4.5K27.8%
October 3120¢20.5%-4.5 pts$1.3K7.9%
September 3014¢14.0%—$2621.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 46¢ / ask 49¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$16.2K has been traded on this event in total, $60 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count. Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.” This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 202 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueNo202$106
Attentive-CrewmanYes90$43
Direct-ChainstayNo45$24
Curly-PainYes39$18
Corny-TeriyakiYes36$17
Straight-WrinkleYes28$13
Stimulating-Confirmation-EnvyNo20$11
Gleaming-HandlebarYes20$10
Delectable-Waistband-StarYes20$10
Scary-HolderYes20$10

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $84 at 84.0%BUY Yes — $48 at 46.0%BUY No — $42 at 52.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 01:22 PM ETYesBUY41.0%$4
Oct 24, 02:01 AM ETNoBUY75.0%$30
Oct 23, 10:18 PM ETNoBUY53.0%$11
Oct 23, 09:34 PM ETYesBUY36.0%$7
Oct 23, 10:27 AM ETNoSELL50.0%$10
Oct 23, 09:21 AM ETYesSELL53.0%$11
Oct 23, 08:20 AM ETNoBUY49.0%$10
Oct 23, 06:51 AM ETYesBUY47.0%$9
Oct 23, 06:51 AM ETYesBUY40.0%$17
Oct 22, 09:38 PM ETNoBUY53.0%$5

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of AWS service disrupted by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 47.5%. Next is October 31 at 20.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/aws-service-disrupted-by-june-30?via=bro

How much money has been traded on AWS service disrupted by...??

$16.2K in total volume, with $60 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does AWS service disrupted by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of AWS service disrupted by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

November 30, priced at 47.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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