Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:05 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 25 bps decrease at 58.5% in Bank of Brazil decision in December? — $30.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $103.
Leading outcome
25 bps decrease
58%
A 58.5% price implies roughly a 58-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +4.5 pts30D +24.5 pts
25 bps decrease58.5%
No Change23.0%
Bid
57¢
Ask
60¢
Spread
3¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 19, 2026: 25.0% – 69.0% · Opened at 25.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Bank of Brazil decision in December?
Category
Brazil, Economy, Recurring, Global Rates, Macro Indicators
Scheduled end
December 09, 2026, 06:59 AM ET
Total volume
$30.1K
Volume (24h)
$103
Liquidity
$6.7K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
25 bps decrease — 58.5%
Resolution source
https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 25 bps decrease, is priced at 58.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +4.5 pts; past month: +24.5 pts.

Since September 19, 2026, 25 bps decrease has traded between 25.0% and 69.0%. It opened at 25.0% and last traded at 58.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202653.5%
Oct 16, 202653.5%
Oct 18, 202654.0%
Oct 19, 202654.5%
Oct 20, 202655.0%
Oct 23, 202658.5%
Oct 24, 202658.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

25 bps decrease is favored at 58.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
25 bps decrease58¢58.5%—$9.4K31.1%
No Change23¢23.0%—$10.3K34.1%
50+ bps decrease18¢17.5%—$7.4K24.4%
50+ bps increase2¢1.6%+0.2 pts$1.4K4.8%
25 bps increase2¢1.6%—$1.7K5.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 57¢ / ask 60¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$30.1K has been traded on this event in total, $103 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 09, 2026, 06:59 AM ET.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,094 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No1,094$454
Agreeable-OpportunistYes293$171
Valid-PlatterYes259$152
Awesome-AvailabilityYes217$127
Fair-TanYes156$91
Deadly-PremiseYes85$50
Weepy-ReefYes80$47
Gleaming-HandlebarYes73$43
Direct-ChainstayNo70$29
Required-HornNo67$28

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $300 at 82.7%BUY No — $200 at 76.3%BUY Yes — $100 at 55.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 10:40 AM ETNoBUY42.0%$22
Oct 24, 10:40 AM ETNoSELL41.0%$21
Oct 23, 04:49 PM ETYesSELL22.0%$0
Oct 23, 04:41 PM ETNoBUY78.0%$15
Oct 23, 04:41 PM ETNoBUY77.0%$49
Oct 23, 02:43 PM ETNoBUY77.0%$8
Oct 23, 02:43 PM ETNoBUY42.0%$4
Oct 23, 02:43 PM ETYesBUY17.0%$2
Oct 23, 02:43 PM ETYesBUY17.0%$2
Oct 23, 02:43 PM ETYesBUY17.0%$2

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Bank of Brazil decision in December??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 25 bps decrease at 58.5%. Next is No Change at 23.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-brazil-decision-in-december-20260918?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Bank of Brazil decision in December??

$30.1K in total volume, with $103 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does Bank of Brazil decision in December? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 09, 2026, 06:59 AM ET. It resolves based on https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom.

What is the most likely outcome of Bank of Brazil decision in December?, according to Polymarket traders?

25 bps decrease, priced at 58.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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