As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 25 bps decrease at 80.5% in Bank of Brazil decision in November? — $84.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 25 bps decrease, is priced at 80.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: -10.0 pts; past month: +14.0 pts.
Since August 04, 2026, 25 bps decrease has traded between 33.5% and 92.0%. It opened at 45.5% and last traded at 80.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 80.5% |
25 bps decrease is favored at 80.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps decrease | 80¢ | 80.5% | -1.5 pts | $33.7K | 39.7% |
| No Change | 17¢ | 16.6% | +0.5 pts | $24.8K | 29.3% |
| 50+ bps decrease | 1¢ | 0.5% | -1.5 pts | $11.9K | 14.0% |
| 50+ bps increase | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $6.2K | 7.4% |
| 25 bps increase | 0¢ | 0.2% | -0.2 pts | $8.1K | 9.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 79¢ / ask 82¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$84.7K has been traded on this event in total, $9.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 04, 2026, 06:59 AM ET.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,780 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 5,780 | $1.1K |
| Inferior-Simplification | Yes | 4,469 | $3.6K |
| Luminous-Classroom | No | 3,479 | $678 |
| Aromatic-Pony | No | 1,255 | $245 |
| 0x6ad509ba… | Yes | 1,121 | $902 |
| Spherical-Rush | Yes | 1,060 | $853 |
| Hopeful-Laboratory-Cricketer | Yes | 800 | $644 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 586 | $472 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 557 | $109 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 517 | $416 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:01 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 78.5% | $107 |
| Oct 24, 06:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 06:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 81.0% | $162 |
| Oct 24, 06:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 81.0% | $91 |
| Oct 24, 06:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 81.0% | $162 |
| Oct 24, 06:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 81.0% | $162 |
| Oct 24, 06:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 81.0% | $162 |
| Oct 24, 06:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 81.0% | $130 |
| Oct 24, 06:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 81.0% | $40 |
| Oct 24, 06:01 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 81.0% | $122 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is 25 bps decrease at 80.5%. Next is No Change at 16.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-brazil-decision-in-november-1785878499354?via=bro
$84.7K in total volume, with $9.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 04, 2026, 06:59 AM ET. It resolves based on https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom.
25 bps decrease, priced at 80.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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